London fit-out market halves – but positive signs emerge

The volume of fit-out projects out to tender in central London has almost halved over the past year, according to Metropolis Property Research. It found that there was 3.1 million ft² of projects in the pipeline in March 2009, a 47% drop on last year’s figure of 5.9 million ft².

Andy King, Metropolis’ managing director, said: “It’s a clear sign demand is falling. The trend started in the last two months of 2008 and it’s not looking good for 2009.”

Despite the fall, the report said consolidation in the banking sector was one of several positive indicators for fit-out specialists. It said: “Once the credit crunch wears off, the rise of new megabanks could mean 1 million ft2 office deals will become usual for anyone who is still around.”

John Morgan, executive chairman of Morgan Sindall, which owns the Overbury brand, agreed. “The fit-out market is driven by change rather than uptake in space. Banking consolidation is an opportunity but overall the fit-out market needs companies to be downsizing or upsizing.”

The report also pointed to a strong demand from companies that would rather stay put than move. “Firms will wait to see how far office rents fall and assess the impact of the credit crunch. In this market landlords are expected to abandon plans for new developments and entice tenants to stay.”

It added that lower rents would also push tenants to cut deals with landlords rather than move.

The rise of new megabanks could mean 1 million ft2 office deals will become usual

Andy King, Metropolis Research

The report analysed the top 10 fit-out contractors over a five-year period between 2004 and 2008 (see charts below). Contractors account for 45% of all projects and have 16 million ft2 of fit-out work on their books.

Overbury had the largest slice of the market with 29% of the top 10 market share, followed by ISG with 25%. Gardiner & Theobald dominated the project manager market with a fifth of the top 10 market, followed by EC Harris (18%) and Turner & Townsend (12%). The top 10 project managers account for 35%

(12.5 million ft2) of projects between 2004 and 2008.

The report noted that property agents such as Cushman & Wakefield and Drivers Jonas were increasingly active in the fit-out project management sector.

Gensler topped the architects’ league with a fifth of the top 10 market, thanks to a project for JP Morgan’s Canary Wharf offices. The top 10 architects accounted for 49% of all projects in central London.