2010: electric dreams?

This is mainly due to a lack of consumer or specifier demand; after all, manufacturers will only produce what the customer wants. But will this always be the case? Will the advances of computing, mobile telephony and entertainment technology continue into the 21st Century with the support of the existing 20th Century installed equipment? What will the situation be like by, say, 2010?

Gazing into a crystal ball, here's an impression of the likely shape of things to come concerning the types of buildings and the technology inside them. The functions that electrical installation equipment could play include:

• lighting – low energy lighting will be compulsory, gls lamps will be banned and light emitting diodes (led) will be the new tungsten halogen;

• heating – 100% condensing boilers will be mandatory and smart communicating controls the norm. There will be an increasing use of sustainable electrical heating in new build premises;

• air conditioning/ventilation – time will see the significantly increased use of air conditioning due to higher summer temperatures caused by climate change.

Domestic air conditioning will become common in middle class housing and utility firms' service contracts will include air conditioning maintenance;

• internet access – broadband access will be pre-installed in all new build and connections to existing housing and businesses will be at 95%. Low cost access to broadband will be available through phone lines.

• energy generation – this will be commonplace in buildings. Photovoltaic roofs will be affordable and mandatory for all new-build and micro combined heat and power will be best practice for housing. Smart half-hourly metering of electricity import/export and generation will become common, with communicating capability mandatory for all new meters;

• security – home security systems will be linked by broadband to service providers;

• tv/entertainment – all new tvs will be liquid crystal display (lcd) flat screen, with 95% penetration of digital tv: interactive for all.

The impact on industry
What impact will these potential changes have on the electrical installation products industry?

There will be much more intelligence in the control, metering and switching of energy and information, plus communication between most products in the home. The following scenarios are realistic possibilities given the anticipated progressions.

Scenario one: A new build, private house with photovoltaic, dc electricity production, ten very energy efficient, mains voltage, white and brown appliances and 15 others using ac/dc transformers.

The house also has a micro-condensing hot water boiler; fully compensating and modulating controls; lighting comprising of 50% compact fluorescent lamps and 50% leds; and a heat pump air conditioner. Broadband digital communications for tv, pc etc would also be installed.

Scenario two: Existing social housing for the over 60s with domestic chp providing heating and hot water and a proportion of electricity; seven energy efficient, white and brown appliances and some ac/dc transformers.

A combined environment controls and utility metering unit can be viewed on a tv screen. There is a security service with local ESCO or other service provider and a remote health checking facility – all controlled via tv.

Providing solutions
Such scenarios highlight the significant opportunities for the electrical installation industry. But how will new services and products be connected? Will they all be wireless or is new wiring and switching needed?

The integration of appliances and heating products will require new agreements on protocols and communications interfaces.

Scenario one offers the greatest challenges and opportunities. One issue will be to find the most appropriate ways to maximise the use of the dc outputs for the solar roof, reduce the significant losses of ac to dc conversion and supply the low voltage dc lighting.

Is there then an opportunity for the development of a low voltage, dc supply to all socket outlets or a separate low voltage dc ring main supplied directly from the output of the domestic generator, with the potential to make significant energy savings? The new products required to deliver, control and protect these circuits could represent a significant market in the years ahead.

Increasingly, existing housing has more cabling because of digital tv, the internet and additional socket outlets. Over the next few years this will probably increase, but without a simple way for this cabling to be installed and managed.

Are there then opportunities for the industry to develop new cable management solutions for existing as well as new buildings?

Just a dream?
It could be justifiably argued that the majority of these predictions will never happen. Twenty years ago commentators were predicting some of these changes, yet housing still looks much the same as in 1980.

However, there are some strong drivers that were not relevant two decades ago. For example, the Government has set ambitious targets in the environmental and fuel poverty sectors, which will change the heating and lighting in our homes. Also, the UK's population is getting older, so in-home care and security will become much more saleable. Digital broadband communications will be commonplace.

The big disappointment would be that electrical installation products still remain the same as in 2003. That the industry will not grasp the challenges, nor harness the potential. That through inaction and lack of foresight, it will miss out on the opportunities that could be turned into reality.

The industry must be positive and not lose out on the social and technological changes that are already impacting. It is time to act – before it's too late.