Taylor Wimpey shares moved up 8% last Friday and the Daily Mail thinks it knows why.
The move came on the back of a similar-sized jump on Thursday.
According to the paper, it's the result of a buzz in the City that "an agreement had finally been reached" between the housebuilder and its lenders.
It hasn't. If it had, Taylor Wimpey would be forced to tell the Stock Exchange, which it would do pretty happily.
If the "buzz" is that a deal is imminent or likely, then investors really should have paid more attention to comments made by sources close to the debt talks over the last six months.
Let's re-cap, shall we?
3 October 2008: "The company’s high debt means banks are already heavily involved and can’t pull back credit lines. If the company went under it would leave the banks with a load of assets they would have to dispose of. Hence, they have to support the company."
14 October 2008: "Together with the recapitalisation of the banks, this was the catalyst (appointment of new finance director) the Taylor Wimpey talks had been waiting for. A deal is now likely sooner rather than later.”
24 October: "The bottom line is that there's nothing wrong with Taylor Wimpey."
28 November 2008: "An all-creditor solution is still the most likely outcome. "
So, the noise is more of a belated whimper than a buzz. It's also an example of the uninformed hysteria about Taylor Wimpey's demise that has surrounded the debt talks.
Investors who didn't just listen to the naysayers could have picked up TW shares for 4.5p last November. They are now worth four times that figure and some estimate the price will climb towards the 75p mark in the aftermath of the announcement .
According to those in the know nothing has happened to merit the latest "buzz", but February is still looking good to finally seal the deal.
You didn't read it here first.