Time is running out for councils to decide how to reach the decent homes standard – 2004 could see big names giving up hope
Transfer
The July 2005 deadline for stock options appraisals is now looming large. In 2004, an increasing number of local authorities will find themselves in the same position as Wolverhampton and Dudley councils: transfer has failed, poor inspection results rule out arm's-length management and land values are simply not high enough for the private finance initiative. There will be much scratching of heads – the most likely result, though, is that the ODPM will not budge and councils will be forced to re-ballot their tenants over transfer. Expect other councils to join Birmingham and Liverpool in declaring to the ODPM that there is no way they will meet the 2010 decent homes target.

After Wales' first wholesale stock transfer last September in Bridgend, its burgeoning transfer movement will continue as Wrexham ballots its tenants in February. Other Welsh councils will reveal their plans after the spring local elections.

ALMOs
Local authorities will look eagerly to July's comprehensive spending review to find out whether the ODPM is going to fund a fifth round of arm's-length management organisations. The Treasury will make the money available, but the deputy prime minister may decide there is greater political advantage in spending it to fight low demand and antisocial behaviour. If so, we'll see a resurgence in stock transfer, especially partial and single-estate transfers.

If there is a fifth round of ALMOs, it could well be the last. The long-term future, past the decent homes deadline, is far from assured for these quasi-autonomous bodies. With ALMOs, the homes remain on the government's balance sheet and ultimately, although they are popular with tenants, this is likely to prove the Treasury's biggest problem with them.

PFI
The six remaining unsigned private finance initiatives will be completed this year, at Leeds, Derby, Reading, Newham, Sandwell and Camden. Expect the ODPM to proclaim, unconvincingly, the floundering project to be a resounding success.

Housing and area regeneration could be tied up as part of the fledgling NHS Local Improvement Finance Trusts programme. Bradford & Northern Housing Association and London & Quadrant have already won contracts. This will go down well with councils, as it deals with a number of issues – health, regeneration, housing – in one fell swoop, rather than negotiating a costly process for each of the three individually.