At times it feels like licensing has only just started, but the fact of the matter is that the Security Industry Authority (SIA) ‘opened for business' in relation to security guarding applications in January 2005, writes Derek Smith. Eighteen months on and application forms continue to arrive unabated at the SIA at a rate of 4,000 per week, with no end in sight until September.

We all fully expected that the Approved Contractor Scheme (ACS) would be launched in October 2005. Most of us thought things would be pretty tight in the run-up to 20 March. The reality was somewhat different.

The end result is that we are still awaiting positive enforcement action over three months after the original date for compliance. The root cause of that is the Private Security Industry Act 2001 in unison with political dithering from the Home Office. Thanks to an enlightened Regulator and the patience of the industry, the Act is starting to work - but needs urgent reform.

Where, exactly, are we heading? It is predicted that there will be something in the region of 300-350 security companies populating the ACS, but how many will survive that first audit? What kind of teeth will the auditors possess?

Some contractors will survive outside of the ACS by poaching already-licensed staff. Golden ‘Hellos' to the tune of £1,000 are now commonplace. As it - pretty much - costs that amount to recruit and licence an officer, the ‘bounty' will inevitably increase.

Enhanced compulsory Basic Job Training for both officers and their managers is on the way, as is refresher training. Therefore, costs will rise, and we will bear witness to an increasing reliance on technology. Mergers and acquisitions will continue. In five years' time we could well be down to 60-80 firms.

At the SIA's 2003 launch, Securitas' Thomas Berglund told us all that it took 10 years to transform the security industry in Scandinavia, and asked why we were trying to do so here in two or three. He was right. We still have a great deal to do. n