All Tradition Future HPI articles

  • Comment

    Was it just the cold or is it a relapse?


    There are plenty of people, “experts” indeed, who fully expect a double-dip recession for both the economy and, for that matter, house prices. For them the data emerging for January’s performance appears to be, albeit gently, vindicating their position. They will no doubt seize with alacrity the retail figures from ...

  • Comment

    Bulls in the housing futures market turn sheepish


    There has been a sharp change of mood among the traders of housing futures who punt large sums on the level of house prices at given years ahead. Traders had turned bullish last autumn and even at the end of the year the Tradition Future HPI was showing ...

  • Comment

    Pundits on balance point to flat house prices in 2010


    It's the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices? Well I can think of a few things. And I'm also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and ...

  • Comment

    Future traders think the tide has turned for house prices


    The futures market is now pricing in strong growth in the housing market, with the Halifax index priced to rise by 6% over the coming 12 months and by 12% over 5 years. This is a marked rise in the prices from just a month ago and reflects the uplift ...

  • Comment

    Forecasters call the bottom of the house price slump


    The increasing stretch of stable house prices is leading forecasters to call the bottom of the slump. The Nationwide late last month tentatively said it may be time to think the unthinkable that house prices may exit 2009 higher than they entered it. Last week much was made of ...

  • Comment

    Economists mark 2009 for the biggest fall in house prices


    If you bought a house in 2003 or afterwards there is a fair change that by 2013 it will be worth just the same or less than as you paid for it. That is the grimmest view taken by the forecasters at the economic consultant CEBR . However, looking at ...

  • Comment

    Futures market puts house prices in cash terms down by a third by 2011


    Punters in the residential derivatives game are putting a very bleak gloss on the direction of house prices. The Tradition Future HPI , which measures future prices against the Halifax (HBOS) non-seasonally adjusted average, puts a value of £137,233 on an average house in June 2011. Given that prices peaked ...

  • Comment

    House price falls - but not 'alf


    The Guardian yesterday reported that traders were pricing in a 50% drop in house prices over the next four years. Firstly and personally, I think prices may fall quite deeply. But I don't think they will drop by 50% in "real" terms, unless the economy takes a pretty freaky turn ...