Atkins report highlights "rogue" air conditioning

The research, carried out for the DETR, shows that hfcs in the refrigeration and foam industries will become important in the battle to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The report Projections of Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions for the UK and constituent countries, says that previous projections have both over and under-estimated leakage rates of refrigerants. While leakage rates from "reasonably well maintained" chillers are around 3% a year, leakage from small commercial distributed air conditioning systems could be as high as 20%/y due to "rogue" installations, the report warns.

Although hcfc 22 will be banned as a refrigerant in many new systems from 2001 (and in all new systems from 2004), the Atkins report warns that the use of R22 for feedstock will be exempt from EU regulation. "Feedstock use is growing significantly faster than the average growth of the chemical industry" says the report, "[therefore] the quantity of R22 likely to be produced in 2010 is about 60-70% of current levels."

While agriculture will account for 47% of UK greenhouse gas emissions, Atkins' reports that hfcs will be the next most important source of emissions, at 11%. By contrast, transport will account for 8% and coal 5%.

HFC emissions are expected to rise from 3000 tonnes in 2000 to over 8000 tonnes in 2020. Most of this output is expected to come from the foam blowing industry and refrigeration.

Overall, total UK greenhouse gas emissions (including CO2) are projected to decline by 14.9% from 211.7 MtC in 1990 to 180.2 MtC in 2010. Beyond 2010, emissions are projected to increase slightly to 186.2 MtC by 2020 because of projected increases in CO2 emissions. (Stabilising greenhouse-gas concentrations requires an overnight reduction in global CO2 of about 60-70%).

The Hadley Centre has thrown doubt over the value of so-called Kyoto Forests – trees planted specifically to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. In some parts of the world, climate change may stunt tree growth or cause deforestation, leading to less CO2 uptake than envisaged, claims the Centre.

Hadley's scientists also believe that the darkening effect of trees on an otherwise bare surface will also lead to more heat being absorbed by the planet, negating some of the beneficial effects of carbon uptake.