A year of change, 2024 certainly lived up to its billing as the “year of democracy”, with more than 60 countries holding elections. The combination of persistent inflation and wider social upheaval fed voter dissatisfaction, bringing about major shifts in the global political order.

The year was also a significant turning point as interest-rate cycles turned. However, the prediction that 2024 would see a recovery of the global construction sector, with lower borrowing rates leading to a revival of investment, failed to materialise. Instead, hopes for recovery were quickly extinguished by a combination of persistent inflation and higher long-term borrowing costs. Even modest forecasts for growth have now been downgraded in the face of an escalating tariff war.

The rapid shift in sentiment means that, five years after the pandemic, many development markets continue to face significant headwinds, particularly around affordability and viability. With private investment retreating, public spending is likely to play a bigger role in 2025 and 2026, particularly in defence, housing and social infrastructure. New political leadership will bring forward significant changes in economic and investment policy, evidenced already in the US, Germany, the UK and beyond.

Meanwhile, the reciprocal tariff regime unleashed by US president Donald Trump brings with it an additional source of tension. While construction may be relatively insulated, relying heavily on local, low-value materials such as cement, certain risks remain, particularly in supply chains for globally sourced equipment like switchgear. Cost escalation is a real concern and, as diverted goods flood global markets, further instability may follow.

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