Each quarter Standard & Poor financial consultancy DRI updates regional housing forecasts for the current year and the next for housing transactions, starts and prices – exclusively for plastics manufacturer Wavin. DRI then scores each region’s housing economy, marking one star for worst performer, five stars for best. DRI uses its own econometric model which responds to 30 pointers, such as industrial orders, employment levels and net reservations of new homes. Building Homes publishes this profitable information after every quarter as the Osma Regional Housing Forecast.

2000 First Update: Key Findings and Forecasts

  • DRI argues that talk of a housing boom is overplayed because “the econony can support no more than robust growth” It predicts rising interest rates to make 2000 “a good year but not a boom year”.
  • “Robust growth” will be underpinned by house price inflation of 8.2% in 2000. Price increases will be mirrored generally in 2000:
  • Private housing starts to rise by 3.6%;
  • Public housing starts to jump by 19.8%;
  • Private RMI to climb by 9.3%; and
  • Property transactions to rise by 3.6%.
  • Even so, four regions are forecast to experience weaker growth in new starts or even a decline in 2000 compared with 1999 - Scotland, Wales, Yorkshire & Humberside and West Midlands.
  • DRI forecasts a weakening pattern emerging for 2001 as interest rates are stepped up toward the end of this year. Key forecasts for 2001 are:
  • Private housing starts to fall by 4.1%;
  • Property transactions to fall by 5.7%;
  • House prices to rise by 5.8%;
  • Public housing starts will continue to soar by another 15.4%; and
  • Private RMI to climb by 11.3%.

Downloads

Download

Source

Building Homes