Climate change predictions take a turn for the worse

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Climate Change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability – predicts almost total melting of the Arctic snowcap, along with increased flooding, famines and disease epidemics worldwide.

The 1000-page report was issued in February after a meeting in Geneva of representatives from more than 100 countries. Despite opposition from oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia, IPCC delegates agreed that "large-scale and possibly irreversible changes" will occur this century, including mass extinctions and destruction of habitats.

The report is the third in a series of four from the IPCC, the last of which will be published in October, listing the actions that the international community needs to take to stave off disaster.

The latest report covers the likely effect of global warming on water resources, agriculture and food supply, human settlements, energy and industry, insurance and human health.

Storm surge floods and shore erosion will increase as a result of climate change, say the scientists. Large-scale impacts are expected to include increases in sea surface temperature and mean global sea level. Many coastal areas will experience increased levels of flooding and accelerated erosion.

Natural systems at risk include glaciers, coral reefs and atolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, polar and alpine eco-systems, prairie wetlands and grasslands. Release of carbon from melting permafrost and coastal sediments could amplify climate change, the report adds.

Disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheets and melting of the Greenland ice sheets could raise global sea level by up to 6 m over the next 1000 y. This, says the IPCC, could submerge many islands and inundate extensive coastal areas.

The potential damage to infrastructure due to sea level rise has been projected to be tens of millions of dollars for individual countries, says the report, citing Egypt, Poland and Vietnam.

"Depending on the rate of ice loss, the rate and magnitude of sea level rise could greatly exceed the capacity of human and natural systems to adapt without substantial impacts." says the report.

One-third of the world's population, approximately 1.7 billion people, live in countries that are "water stressed". This is projected to increase to around 5 billion by 2025, depending on population growth.

The IPCC says there is "high confidence" that climate change would increase actuarial uncertainty in the risk assessment. Such developments would place upward pressure on insurance premiums and/or could lead to certain risks being reclassified as uninsurable.

Such changes would increase the demand for government funded compensation following natural disasters.

In Europe, flood hazard is predicted to increase, which will have implications for industry, tourism and agriculture.