David Curry MP

Figuring out regional growth Housing need is shaping up to be an electoral issue, if not nationally at least at regional and constituency level. Labour argues that most demand is local. The Conservatives imply, in the crucial battleground of the South East at least, that inward migration is at the heart of the problem.

How mobile is the British population and where do the removal vans end up? I have been digging into figures from the Office for National Statistics. They are extrapolations of existing trends: they factor in no changes in policy, sociology, economics or birth rate.

Migration from London to the rest of the South East Regional Plan area (Serplan) was 105 000 in 1997. It is forecast to move slowly up to 112 000 people annually by 2021. An unknown number of these are immigrants into the UK moving on from London. Movement into London from the area was 68 000 in 1997 and is expected to remain pretty stable to arrive at 70 000 by 2021. This gives a significant net domestic migration from London.

In fact, net international immigration into England from overseas, including asylum seekers, is running at about 90 000 a year and the biggest impact is in London. This means that overall London, helped by stronger than average natural growth, is increasing in population by about 40 000 a year, of which only a tenth is due to net inward migration from both the rest of the country and abroad.

When we look at movement between Serplan (excluding London) and the other English regions political assumptions receive a bit of a jolt. The Serplan area took 138 000 migrants in 1997 from the other English regions and this figure is expected to rise, on trend, to 143 000 in 2021. But it exported 149 000 in 1997 and this is set to rise to 161 000 in 20 years time. In other words, Serplan minus London is a net exporter of people. It is London which turns Serplan's net emigration into net immigration.

Across the country the biggest population movement is local. For example, some 206 000 people living in the North West region (all the following figures refer to Government Office regions) moved in 1998. But 100 000 of these stayed within the area. Yorkshire and Humberside was its biggest "external" recipient receiving nearly 16 000 people. London and the South East took 11 200 and 11 500 respectively.

Some 180 000 West Midlands people moved, of which 80 000 stayed in the region while London and the South East received 25 000. Yorkshire and Humberside saw 96 000 movements within the region, almost exactly half the total. Some 22 000 headed for London and the South East but nearly 16 000 crossed the Pennines from Yorkshire to the North West.

London saw by far the biggest population movement - 470 000. But 252 000 of this was within the capital. Another 85 000 went to the South East region, 56 000 to the Eastern region and 20 000 headed for the South West. The South East itself, where two-thirds of the 320 000 movements were to destinations outside the region, sent 57 000 to London, 28 000 to the Eastern region and 45 000 to the South West.

But to get the full picture we have to add natural growth. There are five above-average growth regions - London, South East, South West, Eastern and East Midlands. They have 60% of England's population and 90% of its growth. West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humberside, North East and North West have the remaining population but only 10% of the growth. Between them they lose about 10 000 people a year through net migration.

In the South East population is rising by about 45 000 a year with some 30% due to natural growth and the rest from inward migration split equally between national and international arrivals.

Population growth in the other two big growth areas of East Midlands and the East is about 25 000 a year, two-thirds of it due to inward movement. The North East is the only area with a declining population because a very low natural rate of growth cannot keep pace with emigration. But even in the North East it is worth remembering that migration is a two-way process: for every 100 people leaving it about 95 move into the region.

Population migration statistics cannot be translated readily into household projection. But they can debunk misleading claims. Demand for additional houses in the South East, for example, is not overwhelmingly local in the way the Government likes to suggest. Nor is it attributable to northerners fleeing inner city dereliction as some Tories claim.

It would be refreshing if one party were to proclaim the virtue of population movement and labour market flexibility. But somehow I suspect that the myths will prove more convenient than the reality.