Housing matters in this election

It has been the second birthday of the Communities Plan (which we review on page 22), it has been the lead-up to next week’s sustainable communities summit in Manchester, it has been the week of the National Housing Federation’s chief executives’ conference and, of course, it has been the week of the much-trailed ODPM five-year plan Homes For All. However, more than any of these things, it has been the week that housing was swept up in the race to win the general election.

Over the past few years Tony Blair has been increasingly mentioning housing as a key issue in his speeches. Although the interest of the prime minister in what we are doing as a sector should never be taken for granted, this has always felt more like lip-service than anything else.

The key reason that Number 10 means business this time is the rise of the first-time buyer. Issues such as plunging demand for housing in the North and Midlands, or even the numbers of people in temporary accommodation smashing through the 100,000 mark, are of course important but they aren’t going to lose Labour many votes. MPs routinely say that housing is the most common topic at their Friday surgeries, but somehow this never seems to translate into what they debate in the House of Commons. But when the sons and daughters of middle England parents – the key swing voters in the expected May election – are having trouble buying a home, Blair’s election strategists sit up and take notice.

In this sense, it would be wrong to present Labour’s view of housing as a vote winner – it is more of a means of preventing votes being lost. All that the social housing sector need worry about now we have the eye of the nation’s decision-makers is how do we hold their gaze?

Now social housing has the eye of the decision-makers, the challenge is how to hold their gaze

The target on halving temporary accommodation announced by John Prescott in Homes For All is welcome, but as Karen Buck says in her column on page 16, the next step needs to be a comprehensive welfare to work programme. The pilot we report about on page 8 is a step in the right direction, but this is definitely an area in which the decision-makers will need to be persuaded.

Likewise, it is a good thing that the social homebuy scheme is not the same as Thatcher’s right to buy policy of 1981. However, the argument with Alan Milburn over allowing housing association tenants the right to buy hasn’t exactly been won, as tenants will still be able to buy their homes (Prescott interview, page 20). The deal hammered out over the next month between Jon Rouse and ODPM mandarins will be crucial if the scheme does not cause the stock of social housing to dwindle further.

In the Tees Valley, West Yorkshire and West Cumbria the housing sector’s biggest concern will be whether it can secure the extra finance it needs. The teams involved in making their case to the ODPM to be included in an expanded housing market renewal programme should give themselves a big pat on the back. But with Tees Valley alone looking for as much as £500m from the public purse over the next 15 years, the decision-makers are bound to be sceptical. Those involved will need to hope that housing remains in the political spotlight.