01 / Introduction

Increased infrastructure investment in the UK is widely accepted as a critical enabler for accelerating growth and increasing productivity. However, the UK has an affordability and delivery certainty problem that constrains the volume and effectiveness of infrastructure investment. Typically, UK construction costs are some of the highest in the world, but UK infrastructure programmes also suffer larger cost and time overruns more often than in other countries. 

Certainty of outcome describes the degree of confidence that a programme will deliver its planned strategic benefits within an acceptable range of cost, schedule and performance outcomes.

Cost and time overruns mean that programmes do not deliver their planned benefits, and other investments might be scaled back. Placing too much attention on the assurance of cost and time targets risks a lack of focus on wider outcomes. In effect, the pursuit of false cost and time certainty undermines the achievement of programme goals. 

Investment programmes are evolving, with a greater emphasis on the maintenance, renewal and resilience of existing infrastructure networks. This adds further complexity and uncertainty. Not only does work on existing operational assets introduce issues of asset condition and access, but it can also increase the complexity of scope definition too. One example is the complex, iterative process of identifying an optimum combination of work across a network to deliver the benefit needed to justify the investment.

This is a problem that new client organisations will start to face as infrastructure investment becomes a key dimension of the devolution agenda. With strategic authorities taking greater responsibility for the definition and direction of infrastructure investment, their ability to deliver predictable, affordable outcomes will help to determine regional and national growth prospects.

Assured outcomes matter. Reliable, deliverable business cases support the optimum allocation of scarce investment, and when programmes miss targets, others are put at risk. This article examines some of the root causes of uncertainty associated with infrastructure programmes and the steps that can be taken to ensure the planned benefits of an investment remain affordable and deliverable.

The term “programme uncertainty” is used here to describe the risk of deviation from planned benefits, cost and schedule.

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