A leading construction consultant has predicted that the Thames Gateway regeneration area will not be developed properly until 2045, after a survey of more than 100 chief executives and chairmen.

Stan Hornagold, the chief executive of Hornagold & Hills, said of the Thames Gateway, the largest brownfield development in Europe: “There are targets to have 60,000 houses by 2016 and 180,000 jobs by 2016, but creating a sustainable community cannot be done in 11 years. Canary Wharf took 25 years to get where it is today and that was only 87 acres and went like a rocket.

“The Thames Gateway is 500,000 acres – it’s inconceivable that it will be done and dusted by 2016. This is a 40-year programme. Graduates today might still be working on it when they retire.”

Hornagold made the comments before a speech that was due to be delivered yesterday at the Thames Gateway Forum in east London. His team has recently completed a survey of 120 chief executives and chairmen involved in the Gateway, including the heads of contractors, NHS trusts, local education authorities and councils.

The research is due to be published in January but Hornagold has reached some initial conclusions. He said that one problem was the lack of leadership needed to drive the regeneration plans with different organisations jostling over who did what. Hornagold said: “If you said ‘Olympic bid’, you’d know who fronted it – Lord Coe. You can’t do that with the Thames Gateway yet. It needs a figurehead, as no large project has succeeded without one.”

Hornagold was also critical of the funding plans for the Gateway, arguing that the government and private sector both wanted the other to stump up the money.

The Gateway is 500,000 acres. It is inconceivable that it will be done by 2016

Stan Hornagold

However, Hornagold added that “behind the scenes” most of the private sector was quite prepared for a levy based on how much the value of their land increased as a result of development.

Another difficulty Hornagold found was that health services in London might struggle because the developments were so close to the capital. As the homes in the growth areas were likely to be lived in by a disproportionate number of poor people, who generally have worse health, this would put greater pressure on the NHS.

Max Hubbard, Hornagold’s fellow director, also spoke at the forum. He made a presentation on possible procurement strategies for the Gateway. He suggested that there could be a “Thames Gateway register” set up at the Treasury’s Office for Government Commerce. This would be renewable every three to five years, and would keep track of suppliers and contractors working in the area.

In October the DTI joined forces with CITB–ConstructionSkills, Davis Langdon and Experion to assess the skills needs in key areas, including the Thames Gateway and Olympic zones. The move signalled an initiative by the government to address fears over the industry’s capacity to cope with the development programme.