Government department admits IT system could have made a "systematic difference" to survey figures.
The DETR is to launch an investigation into its computer system following industry surprise at its latest quarterly survey for construction orders.

The survey showed construction orders for December 1998 to February 1999 down 26% on the previous quarter and 24% lower than in the same period last year.

A spokesman for the DETR said: "We're checking the figures.

The quarters show a substantial fall, which is against the trend and advice reported from the Construction Industry Board.

The computer system will be looked at. We have to be sure that it is right." When asked if the figures were accurate, he added: "We're not sure yet. We'll have to see." Construction minister Nick Raynsford is known to be particularly sceptical about the figures, and asked for feedback on workload at a meeting with the CIB last week. He was told that workload is broadly stable.

CIB chief executive Don Ward expressed surprise at the survey results and said many industry people were more optimistic about workloads now than at any time in the past six months.

He said: "We are not recording a strong downturn. It looks very steady to us. Growth forecasts are about 1.5% for this year and the housebuilding sector is buoyant.

"It's not as good as last year and we're far from bullish, but we are cautiously upbeat."

Publishing the survey last week, the DETR warned that the figures had been compiled using a new computer system that could result in a "systematic difference" in the figures. The spokesman added: "The figures are provisional and subject to confirmation and subject to change."

Costain chief executive John Armitt downplayed the figures and said he did not believe the survey marked a worrying trend: "There is a shortage of civils projects at the moment. Railtrack is still working through some of its schemes and there isn't much about with highways. But there is still a lot of work around at the moment."

He continued: "Supply of work has fallen, but things are not as bad as they are being painted. Some clients are spending more time on the final decision to go ahead on projects, but otherwise things are fine." He added: "People should judge the figures over 12 months – not just three."

However, Davis Langdon & Everest associate Peter Fordham said the DETR's figures tallied with those reported by independent industry analyst Glenigan. Glenigan has recorded an alarming downturn in orders in January, February and March, and was unable to compile its usual top 30 list of contractors' monthly orders for Building for March.

Fordham said: "It looks quite worrying. The reports are showing a downturn in every sector."