The latest forecasts from the Construction Products Association do not anticipate any recovery in the industry’s fortunes until 2011

The CPA forecasts that output will fall 15% this year and 2% in 2010, before beginning a slow recovery from 2011.

This latest forecast points out that, even with growth in the industry in the years after 2011, it would take until 2021 for construction output to reach the levels enjoyed in 2007.

Michael Ankers, chief executive of the CPA, said: “Government spending on construction projects in the short term remains strong, and without this the industry would be in a far worse position.”

Key aspects are:

  • Private housing starts will grow steadily throughout the forecast period, reaching 148,000 in 2013.
  • Commercial new work is falling very sharply and by 2010 is expected to be less than half the amount it was in 2008.
  • Construction of factories and warehouses is expected to fall 60% between 2007 and 2010.
  • Public investment in schools and hospitals remains strong in 2009 and 2010, but could fall sharply in the following years.
  • The infrastructure sector is expected to grow throughout the forecast period, reaching an estimated £10bn in 2013.

“We remain very concerned that any significant cutbacks in capital spending after the Election will prolong the downturn as it will be some time before we see significant growth in private sector commercial projects,” said Ankers.

Source

Electrical and Mechanical Contractor