The decision has been sparked by fears for the 'security' of Britain's energy supply. Currently Britain is self sufficient in energy at competitive prices with gas accounting for around 34% of electricity generation, coal for 33%, nuclear power 27%. However North Sea oil and gas production is projected to decline from 2004 and by 2006 the UK is expected to be importing up to 15% of its gas compared with its current 2%. To this can be added the limited role that coal generation is forecast to have, dropping to the region of 6% by 2020.
The review is to be conducted by the Performance and Innovation Unit, a think-tank directly answerable to the prime minister and chaired by energy minister Brian Wilson. "In future we expect to become increasingly dependent on imports of fuel and particularly gas which could eventually become a dominant source of our supplies", said Wilson.
Although nuclear power currently provides almost a quarter of the total energy requirements, this is set to fall dramatically as the decommissioning of existing plants takes effect. Seven Magnox plants owned by British Nuclear Fuels are due to shut by 2010, representing a total of 3248 MW. This output will largely be offset by six new combined cycle gas turbine plants which were given the go ahead last year following the government's decision to reverse its policy on gas-fired power stations.
Reviving fortunes
What will have a bigger impact is the closure of British Energy's seven advanced gas-cooled nuclear power stations and one pressurised water reactor power station at Sizewell, which will see the contribution from nuclear energy, fall to around 7% by 2020.
The review however could be an opportunity for the beleaguered BNFL to revive its fortunes. The company believes that by building a series of six nuclear power stations on a production line basis will enable it to reduce costs significantly and thereby compete with gas. What's more it is proposing a construction period of only 36 months for each plant – compared to the 10 years it took to build Sizewell, Britain's most recent nuclear power station. But question marks still hang over the cost of future disposal and reprocessing of waste and whether the taxpayer will have to pick up the bill.
British Energy's chairman designate Dr Robbin Jeffrey welcomes the government review saying: "With the retiral programme for Magnox plants well underway and advanced gas reactor decommissioning dates commencing in around ten years, decisions will be needed soon if the UK is to retain the nuclear power option which is so vital to meeting Kyoto commitments. Against the backdrop of the California crisis, volatile gas prices and concerns on global warming, we need to ensure the role of nuclear energy."
The government has set the target of reducing CO2 emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. But what about renewable sources? While the government is currently committed to producing 10% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2010, this will be insufficient to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas. Compare this with Germany and Denmark where 40% of electricity will be generated by wind power by 2020.
The current situation draws attention to the risk of being reliant on a single energy source. The government is now presented with a choice. Does it become dependent on importing oil and gas with all the uncertainties that this may hold? Revive the nuclear power industry? Or make a serious effort to develop renewable energy technologies and aspire to the targets set by other European countries?
Source
Building Sustainable Design
