London is not the only part of the south east faced with a shortage of affordable homes. The longer the rest of the region is ignored, the worse it will get.
A distinct feeling of unease is pervading the south east's housing sector in the wake of research findings by various academic and official bodies on meeting housing needs ...or rather, on not meeting housing needs.

The case for more affordable housing in the region has been made time and time again. Both last year's regional planning guidance and this year's regional housing statement for 2002/05, published in March, show that the government knows the case is strong and valid.

But the strength of the south east's need is being upstaged by the competition: London's housing problems on one side, and the regeneration needs of northern urban areas on the other.

When ministers and civil servants talk about housing problems in London and the south east, they give the impression that what they really mean is London alone.

The south east's housing needs appear to be considered a side effect, rather than important in their own right.

And when they talk about regeneration and social inclusion, the usual area of concern is "in the north".

There is deprivation in the south east, despite its general prosperity. Just ask people in Hastings, or the Isle of Wight, or parts of Brighton or Medway.

Some hope has been offered, in the form of the new Affordable Housing Unit. Its brief encompasses both London and the south east. There is serious concern, however, that its attention will focus on the capital, where high-profile mayor Ken Livingstone has forced affordable housing onto the political agenda.

The National Housing Federation is therefore working closely with the regional assembly in the south east to promote seminars on overcoming problems delivering affordable housing. The aim is for the unit to take the seminars' conclusions on board.

The regional housing statement stipulates: "The provision of more affordable housing remains the single most important priority in the south east."

This reiterates planning guidance figures, which indicate the region needs to provide around 13,000 more affordable homes every year – a clear official acknowledgement of the federation's research on the region's housing needs.

Yet, once again this year, the Housing Corporation's Approved Development Programme will only provide around 2,750 new homes in the region.

Even allowing for local authority grants, private finance and planning gains, housing associations in the south east will probably provide fewer than 5,000 homes – less than half the annual number needed.

This will worsen what the Joseph Rowntree Foundation argues will be a "yawning" shortfall of more than 1m homes across England in 20 years' time.

The provision of more affordable housing remains the single most important priority in the south east

What is worse, private housebuilding is at a 75-year low, which reduces planning gain opportunities. And the planning system remains in turmoil, which delays provision.

Extra money pumped in by the government is in effect 'catch-up' money, an attempt to chase the spiralling cost of land and the additional costs of brownfield development, construction materials and labour.

And homelessness, as the regional housing statement acknowledges, has been increasing in the south east for the last 10 years.

The most salient point, and what cannot be ignored for much longer, is how costly it will be for the region, both socially and economically, to fail to provide necessary homes. The foundation's recent report on housing in 2022 made this clear.

Part of the expected problem is a 'twilight zone' effect, which housing minister Lord Falconer needs to consider.

This will be caused by people becoming priced out of homes in the areas they have lived in for most of their lives. Key workers will become unable to afford homes near where they work, and increasing numbers of families will be stuck in temporary accommodation or, worse, bed and breakfast.

The result will be that employers become unable to recruit, and the south-east's economy will gradually silt up due to an inadequate flow of investment into housing and transport infrastructure.

That this threat is as yet intangible and hypothetical does not make it any less real. In fact, it has already started, and the evidence will only get stronger and increasingly difficult to ignore over the next decade.

The DTLR's research on delivering affordable housing through planning policies, published in March, suggested that many local authorities are unwilling or unable to provide robust housing needs assessments and that government advice on producing these is not being followed.

There are almost no cross-boundary assessments, though local housing markets do not generally stop at a council's border, and there are few examples of effective monitoring of the delivery of affordable housing.

All of this is deeply worrying in the context of a planning green paper that puts its emphasis on levels of affordable housing being decided by the local housing needs assessment.

This is especially acute in the south east, where the costs of provision mean housing associations are ever more reliant on planning gains.

Add to this the unwillingness of officials to engage in constructive debate about greenfield land development, as witnessed by the reaction to the Rowntree report, and there is very little hope of properly meeting the region's housing needs.