Trends or Seasonal Spin?

I was very surprised to read the Quarterly Trends Survey on Conservatories in the September issue of Glass Age and Mr Dutton’s assertion that the facts continue to support significant market growth.

His research company identified that 49% of conservatory fabricators experienced growth in sales in Q2 over Q1. Are we surprised? Q1 is traditionally the lowest seasonal quarter for sales by some margin. Surely we should be seriously concerned that 51% of fabricators experienced no growth or even decline in a quarter where we all rely on seasonal growth?

Only 24% of fabricators sold more conservatories in Q2 than during the same period last year. This means that 76% (or three quarters) experienced the same or lower volumes! Should we also be surprised that 45% of fabricators expected to sell more in Q3 than Q2.... Q3 is always our busiest quarter of the year!!

Michael Rigby’s summary is clear. He signals ‘widespread signs of an across the board softening of home improvement markets’ and in a recent article in the Financial Times he has revised his forecast for 2004 downwards from 12% growth to 5%. Not a depressed market but slowing growth for which we must all be prepared.

The survey only informs us of what we already know, that the conservatory market is still a seasonal one though not as pronounced as previous years, and that the market is softening due to a number of varied influences, increased interest rates being the main one. The housing market is now at a critical stage leaving consumers unable to predict the outcome and therefore extremely cautious with regard to spending on their homes.

I know that statistics can always be manipulated to tell a story but it appears Glass Age was used to turn statistics into spin.

Ed.
Thanks for your letter, Chris. Your feedback is appreciated and we shall review the usefulness of market reports on an ongoing basis. However, Synseal merely sponsors the research, which means readers can get a free copy of the full report (tel. MRA on 01453 52621). Nick Dutton comments on the figures but his influence ends there. Although MRA works with a number of companies in the window industry including Synseal, it is also an independently accredited market researcher. Research covers a representative sample survey of 100 conservatory fabricators who also install, regardless of the brand of roof system. – Dominic Bentham