Will Blair do a Thatcher?

Although the government has since come in for much criticism, it is indisputable that the prime minister and his chancellor (whatever their differences) have overseen a huge increase in investment in the NHS, education and – belatedly – social housing.

If Labour wins the election that is widely expected on 5 May, there is much to look forward to in our sector as we get on with spending the cash the Treasury is throwing our way and realising Blair’s vision of choice in the welfare state.

However, Blair has announced that if he wins a third term it will be his last. His mind, we are inclined to believe, will be concentrated on his legacy. The story goes that he had once hoped he would be taking a strong United Kingdom enthusiastically into the euro. Now that this dream appears to be fading with every passing day, he will have to look elsewhere. The policy Margaret Thatcher is most remembered for is introducing the right to buy – it is widely credited with winning the Conservatives the 1983 election. The worry for social housing is that, as we report on page 7, Blair will do something similar.

The plan to allow all social housing tenants to buy their homes through a scheme known as social homebuy will not be received at all well by social housing providers. Although social homebuy is different from the Thatcherite policy, the fallout from the original right-to-buy scheme is still being felt. The policy was wildly popular with voters, but the burden of its consequences has fallen on councils and housing associations throughout the country that are struggling to house people on ever-lengthening waiting lists. Since 1981, 1.8 million social homes have been lost and the rate of their replacement has been pitiful.

The ODPM will contend – as Kate Barker did in her housing supply report last March – that allowing tenants to buy their homes will release precious equity for social landlords and allow this to be reinvested in the construction of new social housing.

It is hard to see how raising the rate at which social housing is sold off gives tenants more choice

Perhaps. But it is hard to see how raising the rate at which the current stock of social housing is sold off will make it any easier for councils and associations to offer people – predominantly poor people – greater choice. The best homes will go first and there won’t be enough in the proceeds to replace them in areas such as central London where land costs will eat up most of the cash.

Take note, Mr Blair: this policy may prove a winner with the 1 million tenants of housing association properties, but these are people who by and large would have voted Labour anyway.

What it risks is that the stock of social housing is eroded even further and that you lose the votes of the tens of thousands of people who have spent much of the past two decades trying to undo the harm of the original Tory policy. Not a legacy to be proud of.