Cold-blooded predictions

These twin pressures could change the shape of the large and growing market for comfort cooling systems. BSRIA's recent interviews with the movers and shakers in the UK market identified the top three refrigerant products for buildings as split systems, movable units and chillers¹.

These three products will mostly be using the hcfc refrigerant R22. However, the hfc R407c is beginning to encroach on R22's territory and this trend is likely to continue through to 2001. R407c has market shares varying from 4 to 46%, depending on the sector. Another hfc, R410a, is also expected to become more important, particularly for small split systems.

The BSRIA predicts some products will change to hfcs more quickly than others. So, for example, only 29% of air-cooled chillers are expected to be using R22 by 2001, with the remainder using hfcs.

Variable refrigerant flow systems almost all use R22 today, but BSRIA predicts that by 2001 half will have made the switch to the hfc R407c. Turning to window units, the manufacturers BSRIA spoke to put more emphasis on minisplits, and believe windows will be one of the last products to switch over.

Water chillers are taking a lead because they are supplied as complete units and do not need pipework to be fitted. The most common hfc replacements for water chillers are R407c, R410a and R134a, all of which, BSRIA says, are selling well. The Association has also found "instances" when R404a and ammonia are used.

The BSRIA predicts that R22 – an hcfc – will continue to form 90% of minisplit sales in 1999. The use of R407c, meanwhile, is expected to grow for large splits and variable refrigerant flow systems.

All of this points to the conclusion that the EU regulation will fail to bite in the planned timeframe. BSRIA's interviewees are quoted as saying "enough lobbying will delay phase-out until at least the year 2005". The Association therefore believes that R22 sales will be significant until at least 2005.

The BSRIA also sounds a note of caution about the switch to new refrigerant fluids: installers are anxious about having to carry lots of different refrigerants and oils, along with the equipment needed to recover used refrigerants.

UK suppliers are well placed

UK manufacturers are ahead of the competition for hfc equipment sales in several sectors. IMI and Airedale are in the top three suppliers of large split systems, says BSRIA, although the Japanese presence in this market is expected to mount. Predictions are that Daikin, Hitachi, Mitsubishi and Toshiba will all be in the top six suppliers by 2001.

Airedale is also very strong in hfc-loaded rooftop and close control systems: it is the number one supplier in each sector. The company also has a presence in the chiller market, where it rubs shoulders with the big American brands. Close control systems look to be a fertile market for Denco and IMI, who are currently successful here.

All in all, the UK industry appears to be extremely well placed to profit from the continued rise in comfort cooling sales over the next few years.