Lead times

Lead times for bespoke panellised cladding have remained constant at about 41-42 weeks for the past year. In contrast, curtain walling lead times have fallen steadily over the past two years as a result of increases in efficiency and capacity.

Manufacturing periods have increased by one week to eight, but this has been offset by time saved in the design and procurement stages, meaning that lead times for curtain walling stand at a modest 22 weeks. Despite increasing pressures on design office staff, curtain-walling contractors feel that they can maintain these lead times over the coming months.

Some companies are looking at partnering contracts as a way of maintaining or even reducing lead times. Increasing workload means that, towards the end 2000, we are likely to see lead times extending by one week.

Enquiry levels

"We are receiving more enquiries that we know what to do with." The words of one major curtain-walling contractor describe the dilemma facing firms. Many have to be selective in choosing projects to tender for. Fortunately, the lengthy tender lists of the mid-1990s are no longer common, but with enquiry levels as high as they are, tender lists as short as five or six contractors can still receive refusals to tender.

These levels of activity are not restricted to London and the South-east; contractors in the North report a similar degree of interest. One medium-sized North-east curtain-walling contractor was recently forced to turn down enquiries for local work as its entire workforce was committed to projects in Liverpool and Manchester. As Ian Hutchinson of contractor Topside explains: "All the enquiries we are receiving are turning into projects."

The booming enquiry levels are proving a headache for some, particularly estimating and design departments, as architects need increased levels of detail early on. Many of the prestige projects require higher technological solutions and there are a number of landmark jobs around.

Future landmark projects being viewed with interest include the Greater London Assembly building and Swiss Re's City headquarters, both designed by Foster and Partners.

Order levels and workload

The major UK curtain walling market is the private commercial sector. The chart shows its growth – about 75% since 1994 – although output is still 35% down on the 1990 high. Most of the major forecasting bodies are predicting continued growth through this and next year. Curtain-walling contractors report healthy order books until mid-2001, and the volume of projects now being tendered will ensure workload holds up until 2002-3.

Specifications are at the top end of the scale. Solar control glass is typical, and a large number of London projects are demanding blast enhancement as well. Other options being specified include trace heating elements incorporated into the facade, triple glazing and ventilated cavity types. Ventilated cavity systems have a higher installation cost, but exponents claim a payback period of less than 10 years.

The increasing workload has not yet created significant labour shortages. Smaller companies in the South have reported shortages, but those in the North have had no difficulty re-employing fixers lost during the recession.

With so many of the larger curtain-walling contractors being global, or at least Europe-wide, labour availability can to some extent be transferred between countries to meet demand. However, Derek Rabbitts of Josef Gartner cautions: "The lack of cross-European standards can mean that qualified curtain walling fixers in Europe need to attend retraining courses to allow them to work in the UK."

Increasing workload in Europe has also worked to the advantage of some of the smaller, UK contractors, by pulling the larger, international companies back into their own local markets.

Curtain-walling contractors are as cautious as any at forecasting future workload, but few deny that, for the next two or three years, there will be sufficient activity to maintain steady growth.

Tender prices

Tender prices for curtain walling increased very little in 1999. Despite the upturn in the market, some curtain-walling contractors had difficulty securing sufficient workload to meet their turnover targets. One major contractor decided to reduce its margins in order to increase turnover – something it had fought against for some years – and saw a considerable increase in tenders won.

The continued proliferation of new projects has meant that most curtain-walling contractors are now operating on reasonable margins. Tenders, for the most part, remain competitive. Contributors to Gardiner & Theobald's Tender Price Survey forecast only a 3.25% increase in curtain walling tender prices for this year, and 2.5% in 2001. Nevertheless, the sector seems set to remain active for the foreseeable future, and many contractors are increasing their turnover forecasts for this year, some by as much as 30%. Although this seems an extraordinary upturn in fortunes, it must be remembered that even the most optimistic revised turnover figures remain 20% below those of the late 1980s.

Material prices have increased little for the past three years. In fact, at least one curtain-walling contractor suggested that the material cost element had changed little in the past decade. Aluminium prices have risen about 3% this year. The price of glass has not yet increased, although a rise of about 5% is expected.

The biggest problem facing the prestige end of the market is the supply of certain types of soft-coat glass. Some of the companies involved in its manufacture have pulled out of the market because of production difficulties, thereby reducing its availability. This is likely to create at least a short-term price rise and may even have a knock-on effect on lead times.

Most curtain-walling contractors have a high degree of design input, so it would seem the ideal sector for partnering arrangements. Although firms say clients are "talking at length about partnering", the vast majority of curtain walling contracts are still let by competitive tender. More common is "approved contractor" status, where tender lists are restricted to two or three contractors. The few that have been partnering report great success and satisfaction.

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