How do you feel?
Business is booming but skills shortages are a problem. Contractors worry that the market is overheating in the region's cities, where they are seeing tender price inflation climb above 6%. Paul Chappell, associate director with quantity surveyor Northcroft in Bristol, says the take-off of Plymouth's housing sector is sucking labour away from Bristol and he has struggled to find contractors to tender for non-housing work in Plymouth.
The redevelopment of the Canons Marsh district in Bristol is about to kick off and £1-2m schemes to extend and revamp schools in the area abound. In Cheltenham, work on the £800m GCHQ building in Cheltenham is continuing, and the Meteorological Office is to transfer from Bracknell to a £60m headquarters to be built in Exeter. Further south, the award of European funding to Cornwall will trigger redevelopment projects including a £90m building for the Combined Universities of Cornwall scheme near Penryn. David Randall of David Randall Architects in Tiverton, Devon, says his practice is busier than ever, but the lack of experienced staff is hampering growth.
What's the forecast?
- Economic growth to remain above average in the short term
- Output growth to slow
- Private housing market to come off the boil
- Factory building to weaken markedly
- Office building will strengthen over the short term
The QS factor
Paul Chappell, associate director at Northcroft in Bristol
1 How often do you eat out a month?
Three or four times a week.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
I've been on two so far, to Tunisia and Mexico, each for a couple of weeks. Not sure where to go next.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
A suit for £350.
4 What do bricklayers get in your region?
£600-800 a week.
by Victoria Madine
How do you feel?
Architects across the region are bursting with optimism. Michael Gallagher, managing director of Lewis and Hickey in Guildford, sums up the general mood: "We're up to our eyes in it." The practice has taken on three more staff recently and is building itself a new office. Nick Caldwell, chairman of Oxford Architects Partnership, is also busy. "A lot of work is being held up as we haven't got the capacity," he says.
Over in Reading, architect Barton Willmore is busy with the 10,000 homes to be built west of Stevenage, the largest new settlement in the country. Partner Nigel Normington says: "In the past three months, we have taken on three new people. I am not having too many sleepless nights right now." John Homer, commercial director of contractor Try Construction, sounds a more cautious note. He is concerned about the next 12 months as clients seem less confident than they were and he has heard reports of some architects cutting back. QS Keith Wright, partner of GPM Partnership in Margate, has not seen any downturn. He says: "We are very busy – we recruited one person at senior level last week. We've been recruiting on a regular basis over the past three years."
What's the forecast?
- Signs of slower growth emerging over the short term
- A less robust economy indicates a slower housing market next year
- Transport investment will drive growth
- Warehouse building is becoming the dominant market
- Commercial orders remain at a high level, but lack growth
The QS factor
Keith Wright, partner of GPM Partnership in Margate
1 How often do you eat out a month?
Eight meals a month.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
No foreign holidays this year.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
Sports trousers, at £45.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
£400 a week.
by Thomas Lane
How do you feel?
After an energetic 2000, building activity in London has tailed off in the past quarter. However, there is still confidence.
"I think a heavy workload will continue," says Kevin Pluckrose, Balfour Beatty's regional director for London. "The public sector is booming; PFI is also working well now that it's got over its teething troubles." The public works programme has kept architects' order books full and specialist firms have expanded to meet demand. Penoyre & Presad, for example, has increased the number of employees in its practice from 10 to 35.
Giant office developments are under way, including renewed activity in Docklands and Paddington, where business districts are rapidly rising. The banks of the Thames have been littered with apartment blocks, and developments worth £10-30m stretch far into the east. There is also a trend towards brownfield development and more architectural scope. "The old brick-and-tile clients are looking to relocate to a more urban context, which means architectural work can be more interesting," says Alan Speed of Croydon-based architect Tomei & Mackey.
What's the forecast?
- Output growth will continue, although at a diminishing rate
- Public housing activity will grow beyond 2001
- Private housing is starting to weaken
- Rail investment to drive infrastructure market
- Buoyant commercial orders suggest stronger output for 2001
The QS factor
Richard Clare, chairman of EC Harris
1 How often do you eat out a month?
More than 50 times.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
The question is: can I add them all up? Skiing in Switzerland twice, Ireland, Marrakesh, Helsinki and Thalin, Spain, west coast of USA and Alaska, Rome … Most are weekends, however – short but often.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
A suit – I won't tell you how much it was, but it was a lot.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
£130 a day
by Stuart Black
How do you feel?
East Anglia seems to have caught the jitters. The industry's nerve is failing, according to the Construction Confederation's latest construction trends survey for the first quarter of 2001. The drop in confidence is dramatic: 66% of contractors in the region expect output to fall over the next 12 months, whereas less than a quarter did three months earlier.
The wobble is beginning to hit the high-tech firms in and around Cambridge. Stephen Bugg, partner at Davis Langdon & Everest's Cambridge office, says: "We know of two projects that have been scaled down or stopped during the past six months."
By contrast, Cambridge's other growth industry – the university – continues to have strong prospects. Some £528m worth of projects are in design or under construction, and ambitious long-term plans are being hatched for expansion in west Cambridge.
For the moment, though, times remain good. DL&E's Cambridge office has increased the number of its staff by 30% over the past two years. In Peterborough, 40-strong architect Ruddle Wilkinson is thriving. "At present, we have the healthiest order book we've had in over a decade," says director David Turnock.
What's the forecast?
- After a pick-up in 2000, output will stabilise
- Public housing activity will edge higher
- Infrastructure workloads will strengthen further in the short term
- Office building is firming while retail weakens
- Planning delays will hinder private housing growth
The QS factor
Stephen Bugg of Davis Langdon & Everest in Cambridge
1 How often do you eat out a month?
We've eaten out a couple of times this month.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
We've taken two foreign holidays, to the Algarve and Canada.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
Probably the suit I'm wearing, but I can't remember how much I paid for it.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
£125 a day.
by Martin Spring
How do you feel?
Contractors are seeing a slowdown in business but are optimistic about the outlook next year, as the Welsh assembly gears up to dole out health and education projects. Tim Holder, chairman of international architect Holder Mathias Alcock, based in Cardiff, says demand is buoyant for city-centre housing schemes. "It would be rash to say there are no signs of a slowdown in Wales, but we have no reason to believe we are heading into a recession," he says.
Meanwhile Ian Parfitt, senior partner at quantity surveyor RPA in Cardiff, says his practice recently picked up a £9m new-build project for the University of Glamorgan. Ken Haines, chairman of contractor Fifehead in Cardiff, adds that he is getting work from the leisure and social housing sectors. "I'd say we were cautiously optimistic about the future," he says.
The bulk of Cardiff Bay's redevelopment has now been completed, but QSs say that smaller development opportunities still exist. But large capital projects such as the £92m Millennium Centre in Cardiff and Richard Rogers' futuristic debating chamber for the Welsh assembly have yet to start on site.
What's the forecast?
- Output to to rise sharply over 2002-2003
- Private housebuilding shows signs of further strengthening
- Rising transport investment will offset weakness elsewhere
- Industrial work will continue to weaken
- Office market has strengthened
The QS factor
Ian Parfitt, senior partner at RPA in Cardiff
1 How often do you eat out a month?
About once a week.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
I've spent about six weeks on skis this year. I've been to Canada and Austria and will go to Dubai and the British Virgin Islands later this year.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
I bought a sailing suit that cost more than £1000. I wouldn't want my wife to find out.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
About £400 a week.
by Victoria Madine
How do you feel?
Quieter times are on the horizon for the Midlands after the unprecedented construction boom in the area over the past four years. Order books remain healthy at present – work on the massive £1bn Bull Ring shopping centre in Birmingham is ample proof of that – but are expecting a lull over coming years. As Hanscomb Midlands manager Dave Crump says, the drop in workload is inevitable. "It was such as a boom in terms of size of projects it has become unsustainable," he explains.
Future developments in Birmingham, such as the £400m Arena Central tower and large-scale regeneration projects such as Paradise Circus and Eastside are not set to begin for some years. Richard Green, Mowlem's Midlands marketing manager, points to empty shops in the huge Merry Hill shopping centre in Dudley as significant. "That's a sure sign that things are going a bit off the boil," he says.
However, the lull in work is no bad thing from the skills perspective, with contractors and consultants complaining of a shortage of QSs and plasterers.
What's the forecast?
- A more stable path for construction beyond 2001
- Public housing market to grow after 2001
- Private housing market slowing
- Stronger infrastructure output
- Both factory and warehouse building expected to weaken
The QS factor
Dave Crump, Midlands regional manager, Hanscomb
1 How often do you eat out a month?
About eight times.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
Two – I've already been to Australia and I'm going to Italy.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
I get most of my clothes from jumble sales. I bought a suit this year for a couple of hundred quid.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
I'd guess £600 a week.
by Phil Clark
How do you feel?
Nottingham is the number one boom town of the East Midlands, followed closely by Derby and Leicester. The past few years have seen redevelopment in all three cities: urban waterside schemes in Nottingham and Derby and regeneration in Leicester.
The East Midlands Development Agency is preparing to regenerate the old coalfields, including a massive 100 ha reclamation strategy in South Shirebrook. East Midlands airport is expanding and there are several business parks under way.
Peter Balch, commercial manager with Miller Construction, says people in the East Midlands are generally comfortable right now. "The expansion of the leisure sector has created a lot of work for us, both here and nationally."
Gary Church, director of 32-strong architecture and design practice Church Lukas, works on city-living projects in the East Midlands. He says: "Housing in the area went through phenomenal growth over the last year, but now supply is just about equal to demand so the market is weaker again." His main skills shortage is CAD technicians.
What's the forecast?
- Construction output is expected to stabilise this year
- Workloads are set to rise after an increase in orders in 2000
- A lack of large projects will hold back public non-housing
- Commercial building will fall in the short term
- A glut of road orders will drive commercial growth
The QS factor
Ian Scaife, partner at Gleeds in Nottingham
1 How often do you eat out a month?
At least twice a month.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
At least one foreign holiday (south of France).
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
A £250 suit bought by my wife.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
£550-600 a week.
by Lucia Graves
How do you feel?
It's a case of same old, same old for Yorkshire. Firms are reporting steady but undramatic workloads. Ian Tod, of Allen Tod Architecture, is reasonably comfortable with the outlook in the region. He says: "We're fairly busy and there are a series of interesting projects out there. We're happy if it remains this good." He believes that the commercial market is going well and his firm has seen a rise in new-build and regeneration projects.
Chris Wood, of consultant Currie & Brown, says workloads in Yorkshire have remained the same for the past few years. "There's been no dramatic changes out there except that we're now finding projects all around Yorkshire rather than just in Leeds," he says.
The QS market is also becoming increasingly competitive, Wood adds. Beyond the ever-busy Leeds, plenty of hopes are still pinned on future regeneration in Sheffield. US architect Koetter Kim is working on a masterplan for the city centre, but locals claim more urgent action is needed. "Sheffield remains a sleeping giant," claims Peter Bumford, business development at QS Faithful & Gould.
What's the forecast?
- Economic growth will remain sluggish in the next year
- The value of work is expected to stabilise in the short term
- Building activity and demand will change little beyond 2001
- Rising roads investments will buoy workloads
- Increased public spending will drive growth
The QS factor
Chris Wood, associate, Currie & Brown:
1 How often do you eat out a month?
Not much, because we're all too busy.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
A few in Europe and the Mediterranean.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
A coat for £200.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
I don't know: we don't employ them.
by Gordon Jon Thompson
How do you feel?
Regeneration is the order of the day in Liverpool. The Housing Corporation has launched a pilot company to develop a housing-led regeneration scheme in the city's Dingle area, and developer Grosvenor and Henderson battles with local developer the Walton Group to regenerate Chavasse Park in the city centre.
George Smith, from Fletcher McNeil Quantity Surveyors in Liverpool, says the city has had an influx of mainly residential regeneration work and that there are no signs of a downturn.
In Manchester, Laing started work in March on the £53m redevelopment of Piccadilly station for Railtrack; the project is due to be completed for the Commonwealth Games in 2002.
In June, Pathfinder Properties got the go-ahead from Manchester council for the first phase of a £100m mixed-use scheme on the River Medlock. The number of PFI projects, one of which is the high-profile £250m Manchester Children's Hospital, has also risen.
Les Wilson, from the Manchester office of QS Currie & Brown says the opening of a new terminal at Manchester Airport will make the area the focus of many future projects.
What's the forecast?
- Construction output will fall about 6% in 2001
- Housebuilding and price rises will ease off until about 2003
- Greater public funding, EU aid and large projects will boost output
- Activity in the roads sector will strengthen beyond the short term
- Commercial output is likely to fall off until 2002
The QS factor
George Smith, planning supervisor at Fletcher McNeil
1 How often do you eat out a month?
Once, if at all.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
I've already been to the Amazon and Istanbul; I'm not sure if I'm taking any more.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
A jumper I wear to play golf in – it was about £45.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
£500 a week.
by Tom Broughton
How do you feel?
Recession – what recession? The construction boom shows no sign of abating in Newcastle, the de facto capital of north-east England.
The area's regeneration has been given a massive kick-start by a spate of National Lottery-funded projects along the Gateshead bank of the River Tyne. These include the £24m reincarnation of the Baltic Flour Mills as a centre for contemporary art, due for completion next spring, and the £45m Gateshead Music Centre.
The regeneration of Newcastle's quayside continues with private investment, including a £35m mixed-use development by Silverlink Property Developments on Broad Chare. On the west coast, things are almost as upbeat with a spate of medium-sized projects, all around the £1-2m mark. "Everybody is fairly busy, from architects to local builders," says Alastair MacGregor of Carlisle-based architect Johnston & Wright.
In Darlington, in the south of the region, outline planning permission has just been given for a £75m, 46.5 ha, mixed-use development by regional housebuilder Bussey & Armstrong Projects that will include a public park.
What's the forecast?
- Construction workloads will fall further in 2001, but rise sharply beyond
- Social housing output is expected to improve
- Public works are expected to increase from 2002
- The value of work is likely to fall off during 2001
- Road and rail investment is set to pick up in the next few years
How do you feel?
The continuing saga of the Holyrood parliament building in Edinburgh has finally reached boiling point as project director Alan Ezzi resigned over reports that the project cost is to exceed its £195m cap.
However, architects and contractors in the region claim that they are happy with increased workloads across all sectors. The exception is the industrial sector, where there remains little work.
Mark Cousins, an associate at Alan Murray Architects in Edinburgh, says the market in the area is still buoyant, with no evidence of a tail-off. He says his practice is working flat-out on a £70m office development just below Calton Hill.
Edinburgh-based contractor Miller Group agrees. "The industry is booming in Scotand – we're working on a number of projects at the moment," says project finance manager Andrew Milne.
In Falkirk, work continues on the £78m Falkirk Wheel, the world's first rotating boatlift, and a planning application for a £1bn redevelopment of the former steelworks at Ravenscraig in Central Scotland has recently been submitted.
What's the forecast?
- Commercial growth will fall off, but workloads will remain strong
- Activity in all market sectors is likely to increase
- Public funding is set to rise by nearly 50% by about 2003
- Commercial activity is expected to decline in the next few years
- Falling orders suggest a weaker market in 2001-2
How do you feel?
The galloping Irish construction market was reined in last month, after housing starts fell by 20% in the first five months of 2001. The housing slump is caused by an overheating market and government red tape has hampered a low-risk, phased approach to new development.
However, the £70bn national development plan has ensured a generally buoyant market, with a steady stream of public-sector road, tunnel and utilities infrastructure commissions as well as public-private partnership schools and hospital projects.
The US downturn has halted some private projects, including a half-built, £800m headquarters in Leixlip, Co Kildare, for technology giant Intel. But most firms across construction report a busy order book and are actively recruiting from inside and outside Ireland. "The unrealistically high tender prices of last year are declining and it has released a lot of skilled tradespeople from housebuilding into the general market," says Michael Webb, managing partner of quantity surveyor Petterson, Kempster and Shortall in Dublin.
Major live projects include the £10bn, 15-year redevelopment of Dublin's Docklands and the £1.5bn eight-year redevelopment of the Ballymun housing estate into a mixed-use district. Other projects in the pipeline include a £440m PPP national stadium and sports campus at Blanchardstown and the £300m redevelopment of Cork harbour.
The QS factor
Michael Webb, managing partner of Petterson, Kempster and Shortall, Dublin
1 How often do you eat out a month?
20 times.
2 How many foreign holidays are you taking this year and where are you going?
We are spending three weeks in our house in West Cork, the riviera of Ireland.
3 What's the most expensive item of clothing you have bought this year?
A linen suit – £500.
4 What do bricklayers earn in your region?
Up to £1000 a week.
by Hannah Baldock
