All forecast articles – Page 2
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CommentConstruction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence
The ONS makes its defence but still leaves questions unanswered
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CommentPanorama points to earnings pain, but the worst is yet to come
With interest rates set to rise don't expect to see a recovery in earnings any time soon
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CommentSome room for optimism to be found in the Experian forecast
Data is more upbeat about construction's medium-term prospects than other recent forecasts
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Comment
Stamp duty - a tax rise that looks set to win votes
There is obvious glee within the housing market about the prospects of a two-year period free of stamp duty for those first-time buyers who purchase properties worth less than £250,000.The £250,000 threshold captures practically all of them, with significantly less than 10% of exceptions that will be mainly resident in ...
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Comment
Comforting data ahead of the budget
As the Chancellor Alistair Darling puts his final touches to the Budget he will be relieved by the recent spate of comforting data.Last Wednesday we had employment statistics showing that the unemployment was falling.On Thursday the figures on public finances were far healthier than expected, with the Institute for Fiscal ...
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Comment
Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain
The forecasts from Hewes & Associates and Leading Edge sit interestingly against the other winter forecasts for construction output released over the past couple of weeks.They seem to back up the mood among other forecasters that construction workload might not fall as much was feared in the middle of last ...
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Comment
Are expectations of inflation too low?
Inflation is now on the way up. That was to be expected. As Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, keeps reminding us, we should expect inflation to be very volatile for some while.But, is it me or do the forecasts for inflation reaching a mini-peak at about 3% ...
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Comment
Another one for the file marked "Gloom": What do you mean you haven't got one yet?
Many thanks to Mel Budd of Leading Edge who sent me the consultancy's latest forecast. For simplicity's sake I have put the base figures for output in a graph with the other industry forecasts.What is striking is the growing consensus that things are looking horrid and there is a lot ...
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Comment
And the slump goes on …
The UK economy shrank by another 0.8% in the second quarter, according to preliminary figures. While the drop was markedly slower than the 2.4% decline in the first quarter of this year, it was still a much sharper contraction than many analysts had hoped for. It also marked the fifth ...
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Comment
Little respite from the worse recession on record
Despite all the talk of “green shoots” over the last few months, it was apparent that this recession was going to be harsh from the offset and our forecasts for the industry over past year have suggested this. This week sees the release of our latest forecasts and it makes ...
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Comment
Recession may cost 800,000 construction jobs - that's one in three
The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association puts the annual peak to trough fall in construction at a shade above 20%.That probably translates to a 22% to 23% fall peak to trough on a quarterly basis, which compares with the 15% seen in the 1990s recession.This is a sharp ...
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Comment
If 2008 was bad for the housing market, 2009 looks much worse
There are plenty of scary figures in the latest forecast from the Council of Mortgage Lenders not least the expectation that half a million homeowners will fall into arrears.The expectation that 75,000 homes will be repossessed by mortgage lenders is pretty scary too, especially as this in practice would mean ...
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Comment
A bad time for house prices to go negative
Nationwide released its latest house price figures today showing the a 1.1 per cent rise over the past 12 months. However, it also revised its forecast for 2008 down from no change to an overall fall.This will please neither estate agents nor house builders as they put Easter behind them ...
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Comment
Construction boom forecast to slump
The latest forecast from Hewes & Associates is not one that will fill the faint hearted with comfort as they return to work from their Easter break.Hewes's rather bleak take on the prospects for UK construction suggests that the industry is heading for a fairly prolonged recession taking output in ...
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