All forecast articles – Page 2

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    Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain


    The forecasts from Hewes Associates and Leading Edge sit interestingly against the other winter forecasts for construction output released over the past couple of weeks. They seem to back up the mood among other forecasters that construction workload might not fall as much was feared in the middle ...

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    Are expectations of inflation too low?


    Inflation is now on the way up. That was to be expected. As Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, keeps reminding us, we should expect inflation to be very volatile for some while. But, is it me or do the forecasts for inflation reaching a mini-peak at ...

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    Another one for the file marked "Gloom": What do you mean you haven't got one yet?


    Many thanks to Mel Budd of Leading Edge who sent me the consultancy's latest forecast. For simplicity's sake I have put the base figures for output in a graph with the other industry forecasts. What is striking is the growing consensus that things are looking horrid and there is a ...

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    And the slump goes on …


    The UK economy shrank by another 0.8% in the second quarter, according to preliminary figures. While the drop was markedly slower than the 2.4% decline in the first quarter of this year, it was still a much sharper contraction than many analysts had hoped for. It also marked the fifth ...

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    Little respite from the worse recession on record


    Despite all the talk of “green shoots” over the last few months, it was apparent that this recession was going to be harsh from the offset and our forecasts for the industry over past year have suggested this. This week sees the release of our latest forecasts and it makes ...

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    Recession may cost 800,000 construction jobs - that's one in three


    The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association puts the annual peak to trough fall in construction at a shade above 20%. That probably translates to a 22% to 23% fall peak to trough on a quarterly basis, which compares with the 15% seen in the 1990s recession. This is ...

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    If 2008 was bad for the housing market, 2009 looks much worse


    There are plenty of scary figures in the latest forecast from the Council of Mortgage Lenders not least the expectation that half a million homeowners will fall into arrears. The expectation that 75,000 homes will be repossessed by mortgage lenders is pretty scary too, especially as this in practice would ...

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    A bad time for house prices to go negative


    Nationwide released its latest house price figures today showing the a 1.1 per cent rise over the past 12 months. However, it also revised its forecast for 2008 down from no change to an overall fall. This will please neither estate agents nor house builders as they put Easter ...

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    Construction boom forecast to slump


    The latest forecast from Hewes Associates is not one that will fill the faint hearted with comfort as they return to work from their Easter break. Hewes's rather bleak take on the prospects for UK construction suggests that the industry is heading for a fairly prolonged recession taking ...