While only a handful of trades showed lengthening lead times, the majority of the sector is anticipating increasing demand within the next six months. Brian Moone of Mace Business School reports
01 / Going up
▲ Demountable partitions
▲ Hard landscaping
02 / Staying Level
▶ Piling (rotary)
▶ Pre-cast piling
▶ Concrete works
▶ Structural steel frames
▶ Cladding (reconstituted stone)
▶ Cladding (natural materials)
▶ Metal panellised cladding
▶ Curtain walling
▶ Atrium roofs
▶ Asphalt/membrane roof finishes
▶ Profiled metal roof finishes
▶ Facade cleaning equipment
▶ General joinery
▶ Specialist joinery
▶ Raised floors
▶ Suspended ceilings
▶ Architectural metalwork
▶ Decorative wall covering
▶ Internal stone floor and wall finish
▶ Non-standard passenger lifts
▶ Electrical packages
▶ Security systems
▶ Logistics services
▶ Soft floor finishes
▶ Mechanical packages
03 / Lead times summary
Rotary piling ▶ All companies are reporting being busier, and contractors are reporting shortages of concrete trucks and PFA. However, this is being contained and there is currently no change at six weeks for the third quarter. Pre-cast piling ▶ has remained at seven weeks following the increase six months ago.
Concrete works ▶ lead times remain at seven weeks. Previously anticipated increases have not materialised and no changes are expected in the next six months.
Structural steel frames ▶ lead times remain at 14 weeks. Companies are busier than six months ago. They anticipate lead times increasing in the next six months.
Cladding - natural material ▶ lead times stay at 31 weeks for the second quarter after a period of increase over the past year. Contractors are busier and expect lead times increase further over the next six months.
Cladding - metal panelised system ▶ lead times have been at 27 weeks since Q1 2010. No change forecast.
Cladding - curtain walling system ▶ lead times have been at 43 weeks since early 2012. Workload increased and lead times could rise in the next six months.
Atrium roof ▶ lead times remain at 26 weeks.
Roof finishes - asphalt / membrane ▶ lead times have been at seven weeks for a year. There are reports of more enquiries, but to no impact on the next six months.
Roof finish - profiled metal ▶ lead times remain at 14 weeks for the second quarter following the increase last quarter. No further increases have been reported.
Facade cleaning equipment ▶ lead times stay at 33 weeks. Companies are busy but they predict no change. Design approval is taking longer, which is being offset.
Brickwork▲ lead times increased again by a further two weeks to 11. This is due to contractors being busier and shortages of stock and haulage contractors to deliver the bricks. Many projects are having to procure bricks from overseas suppliers to meet lead times.
Blockwork ▲ lead times increased by one week to seven. Longer lead-ins from block manufacturers and haulage companies continue. No increase is expected.
Dry lining ▶ lead times remain stable at eight weeks, with no changes forecast despite being busier.
Demountable partitions ▲ lead times increased by a week to eight. Contractors expect further increases.
General joinery ▶ lead times remain at 13 weeks with no change forecast in the next six months.
Specialist joinery ▶ lead time remains at 23 weeks despite being busier than last quarter.
Raised floors ▶ lead times have been static at six weeks since 2007. Workload increased and longer lead times are expected partly due to timber supply issues.
Suspended ceiling ▶ lead times remain at 13 weeks with no increase reported for the next six months.
Architectural metalwork ▶ lead times remain at 16 weeks, with no increase forecast for the next six months.
Decorative wall covering ▶ lead times remain at four weeks with no change anticipated despite reporting increased workload and enquiry levels.
Internal stone floor and wall finish ▶ following the sharp increase last quarter, lead times remain at 28 weeks. Increases are anticipated in the next six months.
Soft floor finish ▶ lead times have been at eight weeks since late 2010, but companies are forecasting increasing lead times for the next six months.
Passenger lift non-standard ▶ lead times remain at 26 weeks, workload and enquiries remain unchanged.
Escalator ▶ lead times remain at 19 weeks with no change forecast for the next six months.
Electrical package ▶ lead times remain at 15 weeks for the third quarter. Contractors are busier with projects but lead times are not anticipated to increase.
Mechanical packages ▶ lead times remain at 17 weeks for the second quarter. Contractors are anticipating an increase in the next six months.
Ductworth ▶ lead times remain at eight weeks with no change to the forecast for the next six months.
Sprinklers ▶ lead times stay at eight weeks, contractors report increased enquiry and workload levels but do not forecast an increase in the next six months.
Security systems ▶ lead times remain at six weeks. There is no increase anticipated in the next six months.
Controls ▶ lead times remain at seven weeks with no change forecast despite increased workload and enquiry.
IT infrastructure equipment ▶ lead times remain at six weeks. No change anticipated in the next six months.
Data and voice cabling ▶ lead times remain at 11 weeks with no changes forecast.
Hard landscaping ▲ lead times increased by one week to 11- the second increase in six months. But no further changes are forecast in the next six months.
Logistics services ▶lead time remains at five weeks despite being busier. No change forecast for six months.
The industry continues to be busy but there are signs that most companies are resourcing to provide the capacity to cope with the current increase. Fewer companies are also forecasting increases in lead times over the next six months compared with last quarter forecasts.
Brickwork and blockwork lead times continues increase because of a combination of shortages of transportation and manufacturing capacity issues. The typical four week lead time for brickwork has increased to 11 weeks, the highest level since our records began in 1999. The previous high of 10 weeks was back in 2007/8.
The lead time for blockwork has gradually grown over the past 25 years but at seven weeks has not come close to the peak of 10 weeks in 2007.
Increases in demountable partitions and landscaping are because of increases in workload.
Data capture and analysis by Mace Business School. For more details on the article and the contributors please visit www.macegroup.com/foresite