Don't let Friday's forecast of continued recession in Q3 get you down – it's in Q4 we should expect an upturn

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its initial forecast of GDP for the third quarter of 2009 on Friday. With most forecasters anticipating the end of the recession, there was considerable disappointment that the economy has now been contracting for the past 18 months.

For the record, the Construction Products Association published its latest detailed forecasts a couple of weeks ago and expected growth in the second half of the year, but not in Q3. With stocks at relatively low levels and increased spending due to consumers taking advantage of the lower VAT rate before it rises on 1 January 2010, GDP should grow in Q4.


Whether it is a slight negative or a slight positive makes relatively little difference to the overall state of the economy