Consultant’s latest global Construction Certainty Index paints gloomy picture of sector’s prospects

Confidence in the global construction sector has fallen sharply over the past year as organisations face escalating cost pressures, supply chain disruption and persistent geopolitical instability.

Currie & Brown’s annual Construction Certainty Index, which surveyed more than 1,300 construction and infrastructure decision-makers across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific, said that uncertainty has added on average 12.4% to respondents’ construction pipeline costs over the past 12 months.

Applied to forecast global construction spending, this represents almost $2tn in 2026.

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Confidence across the globe is down with firms citing familiar worries such as cost pressures and geopolitical uncertainty for the fall

According to the research, confidence has fallen across every measure tracked, with the sharpest declines in those covering time and budget.

Seven in 10 respondents identified material cost inflation as having a high impact on project delivery, 64% identified energy price volatility and 59% supply chain disruption.

Economic policy change (56%) and labour and skills shortages (54%) are also significant factors.

And organisations expect most of these risks to worsen over the next 12 to 24 months – with 65% expecting material cost inflation to intensify further and 58% expecting the same of energy price volatility.

Currie & Brown’s report said that the consequences are already being felt across project delivery with respondents reporting that 30% of schemes have been delayed over the past year and 27% have been descoped. On average, 31% of potential projects have not started, or progressed beyond planning as a result of uncertainty.

Alan Manuel Currie & Brown

Currie & Brown boss Alan Manuel said those firms facing down uncertainty were investing in data and people

But the report said that a group of businesses – so-called higher maturity’ organisations – “continue to invest strategically through periods of uncertainty, building capability in the areas associated with stronger decision-making”.

It said these firms were making greater use of AI to identify or mitigate risk, digital technologies to influence project and asset decisions, data analytics to mitigate uncertainty and investing consistently in skills and training.

The research finds that these higher-maturity organisations are considerably more confident that they will hit their targets, with 58% feeling confident they will meet deadlines and 47% confident of staying within budget compared to 41% and 36% of the rest of the sample, respectively.

Currie & Brown chief executive Alan Manuel said: “Those that are resilient to uncertainty share common characteristics. They’re investing in the people, technology and data that enable them to gain an earlier, clearer view of where they are exposed – and the judgement and skills they need to take action.”

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