On the up and up ...

Remember the last recession? For many it was the first experience of redundancy, of driving home before Christmas wondering how to tell the family. For many it left a bitter taste. And for others it was the final exit from the industry.

Recession has always been with us. In the 20th Century there were five major ones: two in the interwar period, and three more starting 1973, 1979, and 1989.

But while newspaper headlines see-saw over an imminent house-price crash, one headline goes curiously unwritten: “Annual growth streak not seen for 200 years!”

And there’s another, too: “Longest run in quarterly growth since 1950s!”

Because these things are true! Annual growth has been on the rise since 1992. That’s the longest period of annual growth for over 200 years. It may even be longer, but earlier statistics get a bit dodgy. Looked at in a different way, the UK has now had 50 quarters of uninterrupted growth. That’s the longest period of quarterly growth since the 1950s, when quarterly records were first compiled.

So, are happy days here again? Can we sing a song of cheer again?

Yes! Or rather, they’re still here, and here to stay... for a while... unless certain bad things happen.

Annual growth has been on the rise since 1992, the longest period in over 200 years

Okay, the three-year forecast is somewhat duller than the bonanza we’ve just come through, a bonanza fuelled by great lashings of public shekels. (Keep them coming, Gordon!)

Sure, the Construction Products Association is predicting a miserly 0.8% growth in 2005 (see main graph, left). But look at 2006! Look at 2007! In my books, recession means three quarters of shrinkage – in a row – and just look at those figures soaring proud above that nasty little nought line! Even the commercial market, weighed down by the office sector, looks like it will enjoy rude good health into 2007.

Of course there are clouds on the horizon. The CPA warns that any growth depends on continuing investment in schools, hospitals, social housing and infrastructure. No problem. Labour will surely win the next election, right?

Well, that may be the problem. Ernst & Young think we’re heading for a brick wall because the government has been spending faster than it has been collecting taxes. The Chancellor admitted to a £3.9bn gap in the pre-budget report, but Ernst & Young reckon it’s more like £6bn, and it’ll lead to a general slamming on of the brakes once the election is out of the way.

Typical, eh? No wonder economics is called the gloomy science: for every bullish prediction up one sleeve there’s a big BUT up the other. So the bubble is not unpoppable...

But who cares? The last person who predicted an end to boom and bust was Karl Marx. And look how right that lefty turned out to be! No, uncertainty is part of the world we operate in, so just keep your heads down and let the good times roll!