A major report on the UK electronic security and fire alarms systems market predicts a "generally optimistic" outlook for the future with between 4-6 per cent growth per year expected.
(The report, however, was carried out before the events of September 11, events which other industry analysts predict will result in greatly increased demand for security measures...Ed) The report from AMA Research says CCTV and access control are expected to show good growth, although maturity in the fire alarm, smoke detector and extinguisher sectors may lead to stagnation and possible shrinkage.

The potential for fire protection equipment is reaching saturation point in the industrial sector. As a result, fire protection companies are becoming increasingly reliant on technology advances to add value to their products and gain market share in a mature market.

AMA values the intruder alarm market at £437million last year. The original ACPO policy of 1995 and product innovation has sparked a healthy market in replacement of equipment although only "modest growth" of 2-3 per cent is estimated for 2001.

ACPO 2000 may prompt higher levels of replacement and upgrading, to avoid the withdrawal of police response, says the report.

The fastest growing sector, CCTV was estimated at £487million in 2000 with a growth forecast to £656 million by 2004.

"However, the average price of CCTV systems is falling as this sector matures. This may result in further price erosion, which may have implications on the overall value of this sector in the short to medium term."

Access control has also seen rapid growth over the last five years doubling its value to £248million last year. Future growth, spurred by smart cards and integration with CCTV and alarms, are expected to see it reach a figure of £353million in 2004.

Because of media attention, sales of smoke detectors grew rapidly through the '90s reaching near-saturation levels. Despite the government and fire brigades trying to maintain a high profile for smoke detectors, the sector is expected to decline due to high ownership levels and little impetus to replace equipment. New installations will be largely confined to new properties.

Mergers and acquisitions are dominating the intruder alarms and fire sectors: "The large conglomerates continue to develop their interests in all areas of this diverse market on a global scale, with a high proportion of relatively small companies specialising in niche markets", says the report.

The 105-page report, priced £545 is available from AMA Research, 13 Imperial Square , Cheltenham, Glocs GL50 1QB, tel 01242 235724.