Plan for demand

Before we move too far in developing "solutions" we need to define more accurately, both the extent of the problem and its causes, and the Policy Action Team on Unpopular Housing which is due to report in July will be pivotal in this process. The Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions has already commissioned a research project to investigate the phenomenon of low demand which will be available to inform the work of the Action Team. For its part, the Chartered Institute of Housing, together with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, has commissioned Alan Holmans to investigate whether recent trends in demand challenge existing estimates of the need to provide around 90,000 new social rented dwellings each year.

Clearly, there are regional variations in demand due largely to economic and demographic factors, but even within regions experiencing low demand the effects are not randomly distributed but focused on particular neighbourhoods or estates so that even properties which are in good condition or have undergone extensive renovation can be difficult to let if they are in what is perceived as an undesirable location.

It is worth making the point here that the issues which give rise to neighbourhood dissatisfaction: poor schools, inadequate facilities and a poor environment are not restricted to social housing - but where such dissatisfaction results in residents wanting to move away and a reluctance by prospective residents to move into the area then the seeds are set for progressive decline.

As the scale and causes of low demand become clearer these will inevitably raise questions both about future investment and the role of housing management.

The continuing flow of population from older industrial areas is one of the major underlying factors influencing low demand and this is exacerbated by increasing residential mobility within low demand areas. Improving regional economies would help to stem the flow whilst at the same time taking pressure off the south of England. There is a clear role here for Regional Development Agencies to consider the relationship between the regional economy and housing demand and to seek improvements in regional and local economies which exploit the availability of existing housing.

There are issues for existing investment programmes too.

Government Offices for the Regions and the Housing Corporation need to pay increasing regard to the different investment priorities that apply in different regions so that in areas of comparatively low demand, programmes can explicitly support renewal and regeneration whilst new build can be focused on those areas where the demand for new rented homes is high.

Local authorities also need to continue to develop their local housing strategies to more accurately predict the effect of local housing markets on the demand for rented housing - taking people's preferences into account - rather than focusing on more traditional needs assessments.

Where the symptoms of low demand are evident across an area, the real challenge is to develop strategies that 'get ahead of the game' - by looking for new markets and, where necessary, demolishing surplus stock, to focus resources on improving stock which is still in demand.

Changing demand is also causing local authorities and housing associations to review their housing management and allocation policies.

Ironically whilst attempts to reduce crime through highly visible security measures or by publicising sanctions against anti social or criminal families may reassure existing residents this can reinforce the poor image of an area and make it even less attractive in the eyes of prospective residents.

Despite these problems, there are examples of regeneration programmes which have been successful at turning individual estates around - but these depend for their long-term success on the continued demand for social housing that in many areas is changing and in some cases has changed more quickly than any of us had anticipated.

For an increasing number of local authority and registered social landlords:

• The existing population of social housing is becoming older and younger households who can afford to are moving into owner occupation.
  
• New applicants for social housing are invariably younger - they are also more likely to be singles or lone parents, and
  
• Existing and prospective tenants are becoming more discerning, both about the type and standard of accommodation and its location.

How these issues impact in individual areas will not only influence decisions on future housing investment, but will have wider implications for the role that social housing will play in the future.