The forecast means transfers under the New Labour government could outstrip the Conservatives' target of one million social homes transferred in a decade first touted in 1997 - but without the threatened element of compulsion.
Leading figures in social housing said they believed the transfer programme would continue at its current rate for several years. Together with housing association new build programmes and continued demolition of council stock, it could mean RSLs surpass councils as early as 2008, with around 2.3 million units.
Commenting on this year's programme Housing Corporation deputy chief executive Simon Dow said: "If they've done it one year there is no reason why they can't do it a second and third year."
Leading housing consultancy HACAS director Julian Ashby said: "There is no reason why transfer is not sustainable at its present rate."
According to figures from the Housing Corporation and the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, the gap between the two sectors has been consistently closing over the past decade.
As recently as 1988, housing associations totalled only 500,000 units as opposed to 4.3 million council properties.
However, experts say the process is at its limits and is unlikely to increase much further. Dow said: "70,000 units are expected to change hands in the last three months of the financial year and inevitably the resources of consultancies and advisors will be tested."
Clive Barnett, head of housing at NatWest bank, the largest lender and arranger of private finance to housing associations agreed.
"I don't think the annual programme will increase much more - the capacity is really at the maximum," he said.
Annual transfer programmes have expanded massively in recent years. As recently as 1996-97 only 25,000 units were transferred under Large Scale Voluntary Transfer, by far biggest transfer vehicle.
This figures rose 80,0000 last year and is set to top 140,000 this year.
Source
Housing Today
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