If you look hard enough, you can see the first signs of growth and renewal in 2026. Inflation is falling, bringing the promise of lower borrowing costs. Retail footfall rose over the crucial Christmas period – suggesting improving consumer confidence. Furthermore, Building Safety Regulator reforms appear to be working – potentially bringing forward a wave of much-needed urban housing.

But you do have to look hard. Affordability remains a challenge across too many sectors and occupier demand remains elusive. The latest Arcadis market forecast was entitled “Last roll of the dice” for good reason – highlighting just how dependent consultants and contractors will be on the opening of the investment taps in 2026.

The bull case relies on an almost Panglossian level of optimism. Rather than thinking of 2025 as another year of disappointing growth, you need to think of it as a proof point of the resilience of the UK economy. Similarly, we must anticipate that 2026 will be the year when the impact of 18 months of policy work bears fruit.

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