The prospects for construction are worsening, that’s the picture painted by the latest set of main industry forecasts.
Even the least pessimistic of the forecasts, from Leading Edge, at best suggests the industry now looks to be facing two years of a second dip into recession.
Hewes, which remains the most pessimistic of the forecasters, finds little reason to suggest that the industry will still be plunging in 2013, while the Construction Products Association forecasters reckon the industry will not see annual growth until 2014.
All but Experian trimmed their forecasts for industry output this time around. And the reasons Experian shaded its up were in large part technical.
Behind the edging down of the forecasts is a view that the prospects for the private sector have deteriorated. With deep public sector cuts, the industry will be relying on buoyancy in the private sector to avoid a very deep second dip to this depression.
Clearly the views vary among the forecasters over how much dynamism the private sector has, but it seems that recent economic events have led the forecasters to downgrade their expectations, particularly for commercial and private house building.
But it must be borne in mind that comparisons with previous forecasts are somewhat fraught because there have been various significant revisions made to the official data of late.
That said the downside risks highlighted do now look more severe, with the Greek debt crisis casting a nasty black shadow over the forecasters central view of the prospects for construction.
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