One step forward, two steps back: 2025 was bitterly disappointing but the future will surely be brighter

By Simon Rawlinson2026-03-13T07:00:00

Simon Rawlinson of Arcadis is trying hard to spot the positive signs amid some disappointing and contradictory evidence

We recently published our Spring Market Forecast at Arcadis. It paints a disappointing and contradictory picture. Even as national contractors like Galliford Try report spectacular growth in orders for 2027 and 2028, the wider industry has entered recession.

What’s going on? The data suggests that, with the exception of public sector building work, all other new-build sectors have recently either flatlined or contracted. Given the atrocious recent weather, 2026 is unlikely to be off to a better start.

Confusingly, there is also plenty of evidence of a growing order book, boasting year-on-year, double-digit growth. It seems as if there are parallel universes, the present and future of construction.

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