Experian issues bleak prediction, with housing activity suffering biggest decline of 14%

The construction industry is facing a decline in output of more than 3% next year, according to revised forecasts from Experian.

The forecasts predict a 3.1% decline next year, compared with a 1.1% growth forecast back in January. Housing is set to experience a 14.1% decline, private commercial work 8% and repair and maintenance 1.4%.

However, the bleak figures were countered to some degree by a buoyant infrastructure market, forecast still to grow – albeit at a slower pace than this year. Experian estimates the sector will increase by 10% in 2009 and 10% in 2010, compared with 15% this year.

Evidence for the third quarter points to a substantial further loss of momentum and there is little doubt that the UK has entered its first recession since the early 1990s

Experian statement

In a statement accompanying the forecasts, Experian said: “The economic situation has deteriorated markedly in recent months… Evidence for the third quarter points to a substantial further loss of momentum and there is little doubt that the UK has entered its first recession since the early 1990s.”

The company added: “We expect spending to remain in the doldrums until the final quarter of 2009. Thereafter, as financial conditions normalise and interest rates settle at a lower level, the prospect is for a gradual upturn.”

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