Predicted contraction slightly smaller than previously estimated

Construction output is expected to fall 6.8% this year, according to the Construction Products Association.

The CPA’s autumn forecast was a slight improvement on the 7% contraction it predicted in the summer, while its estimation for 2024 was also revised down – from growth of just 0.7% to a fall of 0.3%.

The housing sector – both new build and repair, maintenance and improvement – is forecast to be the worst affected, due to high inflation and interest rates.

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Source: Shutterstock


Infrastructure remains strong due to major projects but there are signs that more roads projects are being delayed or cancelled than anticipated.

“With only a couple of months left in a difficult year for construction and looking forward to 2024, the evidence suggests it will still be a while before the clouds begin to lift,” said Rebecca Larkin, the CPA’s head of construction research.

“Both new build housing and RM&I have taken a significant hit from rising interest rates, falling real wages and weak economic growth and demand is expected to remain subdued for house purchases and improvements.”