Construction Forecasting and Research's new year report says total work will reach £59.4bn in 2001, an increase of 2.5%. It is expected to grow a further 2.5% in 2002 to £61bn. Last summer, CFR predicted growth of 1.4% for 2001 and 1.9% for 2002.
This is broadly in line with new figures from research body Euroconstruct, which predicts that UK output will grow 2.6% in 2001, 2.5% in 2002 and 2.3% in 2003.
This is significantly higher than Euroconstruct's figures for overall Western European output, which is forecast to grow 1.4% in 2001 and 1.7% in 2002 and 2003.
CFR has also upgraded its forecast for the repair and maintenance sector. Total repair and maintenance work is tipped to rise 5% to £28.3bn this year, against a summer prediction of 4%. This is largely thanks to an 8% increase in public housing repair and maintenance in both 2001 and 2002. Total R&M work is set to increase 4.5% to £29.6bn in 2002.
New work is showing more modest growth. It is expected to rise 1% in both 2001 and 2002 to £31bn and £31.3bn respectively.
CFR has downgraded its forecast for the infrastructure sector. It estimates that work will grow 4% to £6.3bn by 2002. Figures released last summer predicted an increase of 6%.
Infrastructure is still expected to grow 5% to £6bn in 2001, as predicted by CFR last year, but the forecaster said a lack of skilled workers would hold back future growth The weaker sectors highlighted by the CFR research were commercial, private industrial and housebuilding.
Commercial work has seen a slump since the 14.8% growth reported in 1999. This year, growth of just 1% to £10.4bn is forecast, with no change predicted next year.
Private industrial work is set to fall 2% to £3.1bn this year.
Despite 5.5% growth in 2000, housebuilding is tipped to fall 3% this year and 1.5% in 2002 from £7.4bn in 2000 to £7.1bn in 2002.
Euroconstruct's report says Ireland is still the boom centre of Europe, with growth set to hit 6.7% in 2001, before slowing slightly to 6.1% in 2002 and 4.5% in 2003.
Euroconstruct further backed up the CFR figures by pointing to a "listless" industrial and commercial market in the UK and a stagnant housing sector. The researcher also pointed to a dynamic civil engineering sector pumped by new infrastructure programmes.
