It’s the time of the year for reflections, resolutions and prognostications. And what can be more fun than guessing the likely path of house prices?

Well I can think of a few things. And I’m also left wondering why anyone would wish to state a house price forecast publicly and put their reputations on the line. Predicting house prices currently is a bit like trying to pin a tail on a bucking donkey while blindfolded and in front of a sneering audience.

Still they do and I am thankful, because it is their analysis and assumptions rather than the precise number they settle on which interests me. I take the view that if your forecast proves correct it is most likely to be right for the wrong reason.

And while the pundits were woefully wrong in their predictions for 2009, it doesn’t mean their thinking was necessarily at fault.