All articles by Noble Francis – Page 4
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Comment28 degrees but Budget leaves construction feeling cold
The Chancellor said there would be ‘no further falls in capital expenditure’, the key area for construction. That sounds good but the falls are very harsh
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CommentBudget responsibility and all that
The latest forecast from the Office of Budget Responsibility makes grim reading, particularly for construction…
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CommentSix billion pounds of spending cuts - and many more to come
This is just of foretaste of cuts we face in the June Budget and autumn spending review
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News
Shoots without roots
Last Friday’s figures for Britain’s GDP confirmed that the economy is still in recession and although we will come out of it in the final quarter of 2009, construction will remain in recession
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Comment
GDP figures: a turn up for the books
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published its initial forecast of GDP for the third quarter of 2009 on Friday. With most forecasters anticipating the end of the recession, there was considerable disappointment that the economy has now been contracting for the past 18 months.For the record, the Construction Products ...
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NewsGDP figures: a turn-up for the books
Don't let Friday's forecast of continued recession in Q3 get you down – it's in Q4 we should expect an upturn
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Comment
A removeable feast: how long will schools funding last?
The education sector is one of the areas to have remained buoyant during the recession. Capital funding has increased fourfold since 1997/98, putting it at just over £4.1bn. Altogether, the education sector is providing £6bn a year for construction through public funding and indirectly through the PFI. These workloads are ...
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NewsSigns of life for housing?
Economist Noble Francis sees glimmers of an upturn but remains cautious
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Comment
Signs of life for housing?
This week has seen the release of data from CLG, covering the second quarter’s housing starts, and CML, providing the latest data on mortgage lending. Both have seen sharp increases. Housing starts in England during the second quarter of 2009 were 63% higher than in 2009 Q1 following the high ...
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Comment
Green shoots?
RICS commercial property survey shows that the pace of decline has slowed and demand is marginally increasing in the office market. Of those surveyed, just 13% said new sales and lettings had fallen, compared with 71% two quarters ago, but any fall at all is still bad news.The rise in ...
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NewsGreen shoots - 24 July 2009
Noble Francis, economics director at the Construction Products Association, examines the latest commercial property data
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NewsNo respite from the worst recession on record
Think you see green shoots? Have a look at these forecasts...
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Comment
Little respite from the worse recession on record
Despite all the talk of “green shoots” over the last few months, it was apparent that this recession was going to be harsh from the offset and our forecasts for the industry over past year have suggested this. This week sees the release of our latest forecasts and it makes ...
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NewsWorst fall in output on record
Total construction output was an unprecedented 16% lower in the first quarter of this year than the same time last year
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Comment
Worst fall in output on record
The construction output figures from the Office of National Statistics covering the first quarter of 2009 highlight the true nature of the construction recession, or should we say depression, with considerable destocking leading to sharp falls in output. Total output in construction during the first quarter of 2009 fell an ...
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NewsIs everyone being too positive?
After months of contraction, people are getting excited about slowing negative. But where's the evidence?
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Comment
Is everyone being too positive?
Apparently, slowing negative is now the new positive. Contraction is passé. The only problem is, that the evidence doesn't appear to suggest that.Just two examples, of many recently, spring to mind.The latest Key Purchasing Managers Index for construction from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) rose from 30.9 ...
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NewsConstruction deflation forecasts... not a surprise
Our economics expert discusses Davis Langdon's grim price forecasts
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Comment
Construction deflation forecasts... not a surprise
Davis Langdon's latest forecasts for tender prices make for interesting reading. They are anticipating a fall in tender prices during 2009, 2010 and even in the first quarter of 2011. By 2010 Q1, tender prices are expected to be between 6% and 9% lower than a year earlier and by ...
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NewsOutput figures signal more bad news
Noble Francis of the Construction Products Association discusses GDP and the budget