Last Friday’s figures for Britain’s GDP confirmed that the economy is still in recession and although we will come out of it in the final quarter of 2009, construction will remain in recession

Output is expected to fall 15% this year – the sharpest fall on record – with a further 2% decline in 2010. Net lending to businesses is actually negative, with companies paying back more than they are borrowing. This lack of lending is likely to hit SMEs over the next year.

What we saw in the summer was green shoots without roots. The positive coverage was more despite the data than because of it. Even in a downturn there are still areas of growth, such as education, health and rail. Yet, with the poor state of the public finances, spending on construction is likely to fall post-election and overall, the industry is not expected to enjoy growth until 2011.

Postscript

Noble Francis is economics director of the Construction Products Association