Do the improving employment prospects in the South-east point to a permanent geographic shift for jobs?

Brian Green

The latest set of Office for National Statistics figures for jobs in the economy does provide reason to be encouraged.

The national construction jobs figures provide relief in that there were at least as many jobs in September this year as last. Indeed the figure of 2,070,000 workforce jobs (seasonally adjusted) is the highest for three years.

So we may be seeing a turning point with potentially sustained growth in employment in the coming months. Though in fairness most of the improvement in the construction jobs scene has come from self-employment rather than direct employment.

A closer examination of the construction jobs figures regionally, however, leaves plenty of scope to get a little bothered if you live and work near the M62 corridor. Construction jobs in the North-west were 3.5% fewer in the three months to this September than a year ago, while Yorkshire & Humber saw a drop of more than 11%.

This contrasts with those plying their trade in and around London, who are seeing a very different construction jobs market. There was a rise of more than 5% in the number of construction jobs in the capital over the same period. Meanwhile in the abutting Eastern region jobs were up almost 7.7%.

This further strengthens and existing trend. While , according to the workforce jobs data, the industry has lost about 256,000 jobs across the UK between September 2007 and September 2013, in London there was an increase of 37,000.

Before the crash jobs in London accounted for about 11% of those in the UK. That figure is now above 14%.

We have seen a structural shift in the industry. Half of all construction jobs in Great Britain are now in the South (London, South-east, South-west and Eastern regions). This compares with about 45% before the recession and about 44% 20 years ago when the industry was pulling its way out of the 1990s recession.

The proportion seems to have been similar to that 44% back in 1981, according to census data. So the current regional spread of construction employment appears unusual.

The real question these figures pose is how successfully will the recovery, evident in London, spread to the rest of the nation and boost employment there. Or are we looking at a permanent and marked shift southward in construction workload and the jobs that go with it?

Brian Green is an independent analyst, commentator and consultant working in construction, housing and property