All forecast articles
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NewsBad weather and Carillion to send output sinking to six year low
Growth this year will be ravaged by Carillion collapse and bad weather, CPA warns
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Comment
The construction recession will be deeper – that’s the forecasters latest view
Both Experian and the Construction Products Association have trimmed their expectations for growth in construction output for this year and next
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Comment
Why we should be cautious about seeing the RICS survey as a signpost to growth in UK construction
Like all surveys, its finding needs close interpretation and consideration when there are structural changes within the industry
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Comment
Latest data shows construction sliding into recession
ONS stats show construction output shrinking in the last quarter
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Comment
First of autumn forecasts downgrades construction prospects
Message from first autumn forecasts to emerge is to prepare for slower recovery than expected
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Comment
Forecasters’ views vary on depth and length of construction’s second drop into recession
Hewes forecast expects no growth before 2013 in any private sectors other than industrial
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Comment
Jobs and pay data do little to perk up waning hopes for growth
Fewer construction vacancies put downward pressure on industry wages
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Comment
Construction output: So far it’s better than last year, but can that last?
Output figures are looking good but why, how and is this sustainable?
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Comment
Construction output figures in the dock: the case for the defence
The ONS makes its defence but still leaves questions unanswered
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Comment
Panorama points to earnings pain, but the worst is yet to come
With interest rates set to rise don't expect to see a recovery in earnings any time soon
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Comment
Some room for optimism to be found in the Experian forecast
Data is more upbeat about construction's medium-term prospects than other recent forecasts
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Comment
Stamp duty - a tax rise that looks set to win votes
There is obvious glee within the housing market about the prospects of a two-year period free of stamp duty for those first-time buyers who purchase properties worth less than £250,000. The £250,000 threshold captures practically all of them, with significantly less than 10% of exceptions that will be mainly resident ...
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Comment
Comforting data ahead of the budget
As the Chancellor Alistair Darling puts his final touches to the Budget he will be relieved by the recent spate of comforting data. Last Wednesday we had employment statistics showing that the unemployment was falling. On Thursday the figures on public finances were far healthier than expected, with the ...
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Comment
Brighter outlook from forecasters, but severe risks remain
The forecasts from Hewes Associates and Leading Edge sit interestingly against the other winter forecasts for construction output released over the past couple of weeks. They seem to back up the mood among other forecasters that construction workload might not fall as much was feared in the middle ...
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Comment
Are expectations of inflation too low?
Inflation is now on the way up. That was to be expected. As Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, keeps reminding us, we should expect inflation to be very volatile for some while. But, is it me or do the forecasts for inflation reaching a mini-peak at ...
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Comment
Another one for the file marked "Gloom": What do you mean you haven't got one yet?
Many thanks to Mel Budd of Leading Edge who sent me the consultancy's latest forecast. For simplicity's sake I have put the base figures for output in a graph with the other industry forecasts. What is striking is the growing consensus that things are looking horrid and there is a ...
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Comment
And the slump goes on …
The UK economy shrank by another 0.8% in the second quarter, according to preliminary figures. While the drop was markedly slower than the 2.4% decline in the first quarter of this year, it was still a much sharper contraction than many analysts had hoped for. It also marked the fifth ...
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Comment
Little respite from the worse recession on record
Despite all the talk of “green shoots” over the last few months, it was apparent that this recession was going to be harsh from the offset and our forecasts for the industry over past year have suggested this. This week sees the release of our latest forecasts and it makes ...
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Comment
Recession may cost 800,000 construction jobs - that's one in three
The latest forecast from the Construction Products Association puts the annual peak to trough fall in construction at a shade above 20%. That probably translates to a 22% to 23% fall peak to trough on a quarterly basis, which compares with the 15% seen in the 1990s recession. This is ...
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Comment
If 2008 was bad for the housing market, 2009 looks much worse
There are plenty of scary figures in the latest forecast from the Council of Mortgage Lenders not least the expectation that half a million homeowners will fall into arrears. The expectation that 75,000 homes will be repossessed by mortgage lenders is pretty scary too, especially as this in practice would ...
